764 FXUS62 KILM 092134 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 534 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and increasingly wet conditions will continue for the next couple of days. What remains of Michael will affect the area Thursday and possibly into Friday. A cold front will move across the area this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Tropical Storm Watch now in effect for all counties in our local area. Previous discussion: Rather shallow convection remains isolated to widely scattered this afternoon. Additional showers are expected to develop overnight, especially across the southern portions of the forecast area with a southeasterly low- level jet taking shaping with low- level Theta-E advection to increase. The initial band of showers could be heavy at times during Wednesday and given how sensitive the area is to heavy rainfall given the historic rainfall a few weeks ago we will raise a Flash Flood Watch beginning at 8 AM Wednesday. In addition, a Coastal Flood Advisory will be issued to account for high tide flooding given persistent onshore flow. A Tropical Storm Watch is also now in effect. Otherwise, opted to follow a blend of MAV/MET guidance tonight and Wednesday. The highs and lows will continue to range well above normal each period. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Increasing deep tropical moisture feed ahead of Micheal will produce periods of heavier rain and gusty showers leading into Thursday as Michael approaches from the south. Michael will weaken as it moves into our area from the south. The main effects will periods of strong gusty winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding or run up during times of high tides, and possible tornadoes. Pcp water reaches up near 2.5 inches Wed night into Thurs as winds increase out of the south to southeast in the outer circulation of Micheal. Expect gusty showers to move on shore through Wed night and then Trop Storm conditions spreading north on Thurs as Micheal reaches the area Thurs morning. The center is still forecast to move up the I-95 corridor through the day on Thurs exiting out just north of Hatteras Fri morning, with winds forecast to reach up to 40 to 50 mph. The strongest winds will be found in heavier rain showers and thunderstorms. The fast moving storm should produce up to 2 to 4 inches of rain in places with isolated higher amounts. Flash flooding in possible, especially inland where heavier rain should be focused. As the weakening storm moves toward and across eastern Carolinas on Thurs, tornadoes will become a concern, especially as the increase in shear will be coincident with diurnal heating. The impacts across the local area will be worsened by the fact that the area may be much more vulnerable due to Florence, in terms of wet ground leading to fallen trees, tarps on roofs, etc... Michael will track off to the northeast with plenty of dry air wrapping around the back end heading into Fri morning. This will lead to clearing skies and overnight lows dropping into the 60s, still above normal but cooler than previous days. The tropical air mass will maintain warm and humid conditions through Thurs with temps well above normal, 80s during the day on Thurs. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Any lingering rain chances early Friday will quickly give way to strong dry advection. Cooler air pushes in Friday night and over the weekend possibly yielding coolest air since before Summer. Warm and moist advection on Monday as the first high moves offshore but an even stronger cold front due Tuesday. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 17Z... Some MVFR ceilings are possible during the day as shallow showers move onshore especially near the coastal terminals. Persistent onshore flow will allow for the possibility of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, however, little impact to aviation is expected. Overnight, easterly flow will maintain the possibility of showers at coastal terminals with MVFR ceilings possible at the inland terminals. Moderate confidence in little to no fog overnight. With a tight PG oriented SE to NW will produce a moderate SE wind through a deep layer associated with the approach of Hurricane Michael. With this, precipitation chances will increase, especially later tonight into Wednesday with tropical showers. Extended Outlook...Tropical cyclone Michael is expected to impact the area Wednesday night through Friday, bringing periods of heavy rain with IFR ceilings, as well as sustained winds of 30-40 kt with gusts potentially in the 40-50 knot range, especially at the coastal terminals. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Tropical Storm Watch now in effect for all counties in our local area. Previous discussion: Conditions across the waters are already rough/steep given a combination of swell and persistent ESE fetch. The fetch will veer to a SE direction during Wednesday allowing seas to build further. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms should increase in coverage overnight, especially across the Long Bay waters. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Conditions will steadily deteriorate through Thurs into Thurs night as Michael approaches from the southwest as it weakens with winds forecast up to 40 to 50 kts with higher gusts. Tropical storm-force winds will spread northward across the waters on Thursday. Conditions likely at their worst late Thurs into Thurs night as winds shift around from SW to NW and start decreasing behind the exiting storm. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Gusty NW winds may still be diminishing Friday deepening on the speed of Michael's exit. High pressure moves across the area over the weekend yielding mostly northeasterly to easterly winds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through late Thursday night for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. Tropical Storm Watch for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056- 058-059. High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. NC...Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through late Thursday night for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. Tropical Storm Watch for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. MARINE...Tropical Storm Watch for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...21/SRP