535 FXUS63 KICT 110856 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 356 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Forecast Headline: Frost Advisory Remains In Effect For Russell, Barton, Ellsworth & Lincoln Counties Until 9 AM CDT. This Morning: Temperature/dew point spreads in the 4 above-mentioned counties are 3 degrees or less & with clear skies the Frost Advisory will remain in effect until 9 AM CDT. Perhaps the only "saving grace" would be NW winds up to around 10 mph, but will stay the course. This Afternoon: One more period of dry weather as lower-deck ridge spreads east across the southern & central plains. Intense mid-upper cyclone that'll cross Ontario this afternoon will leave the Great Plains under a fast zonal regime as a sharp, positively-tilted longwave trof that extends from Manitoba to just off the CA coast begins to move east, reaching the northern Rockies this evening. Tonight-Sat Night: Forecast is essentially unchanged with the first shot of rain scheduled to arrive late tonight. A cut-off upper-deck low will form just off the southern CA coast while a pronounced shortwave surges SE across the northern plains. The latter character would begin to induce a weak surface low to develop over NM. The lower- deck flow would quickly assume a veering component that would in turn enable richer moisture to begin a northward migration. Theta E advection becomes quite pronounced in advance of the next cold front that may reach central KS late Fri morning. PoP increases considerably late tonight but with the cold front sprinting SE & crossing the KS/MO line & dissipating the rains would end early Fri evening. On Sat, the remnants of "Sergio" would bring the next round of rain to KICT Country. There continues to be disagreement amongst the short-term models on the exact track one thing is certain: The southern plains will get soaked. As such have kept the highest PoPs assigned to generally the southern half of the CWA. Once again, QPFs will need to be watched closely. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Sun & Sunday Night: The precipitation type becomes the greatest challenge as strong cold advection commences Sun afternoon. The SE expansion of the light snow is especially challenging as models in general have had difficulty with the "degree" of the cold intrusion. One thing that we're sure of: Sunday night to Mon night would present the coldest weather so far this fall. Frost advisories & perhaps freeze warnings would likely be required Sun & Mon nights. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 VFR conditions are expected for the next 18-22 hours. Stubborn cumulus clouds continue to linger across portions of central KS near the KSLN taf site. But expect this to slowly shift east overnight. As the overnight progresses, a Canadian ridge of high pressure will shift east over the forecast area with winds becoming light variable by sunrise on Thu. By Thu evening another impulse in the mid layers, will bring increasing mid clouds to portions of central KS. Some model solutions hint that some of the cigs may go MVFR by around the end of the taf period, but will let later forecasts handle this. Ketcham && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 54 46 56 40 / 0 80 80 10 Hutchinson 51 44 55 39 / 0 90 80 0 Newton 52 45 54 40 / 0 90 90 10 ElDorado 54 45 54 40 / 0 80 90 10 Winfield-KWLD 56 46 57 40 / 0 70 90 10 Russell 48 42 54 38 / 10 90 60 0 Great Bend 49 42 55 39 / 10 90 60 0 Salina 51 43 53 39 / 0 90 80 0 McPherson 51 43 54 38 / 0 90 80 0 Coffeyville 59 46 56 42 / 0 50 90 10 Chanute 55 45 53 40 / 0 60 90 10 Iola 55 44 52 40 / 0 60 90 10 Parsons-KPPF 58 45 55 41 / 0 50 90 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ032-033-047- 048. && $$ SHORT TERM...EPS LONG TERM...EPS AVIATION...Ketcham