783 FXUS63 KICT 102355 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 655 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 A cold front stretches from the Great Lakes to the Texas Gulf Coast this afternoon, with a somewhat breezy NW flow in its wake. Lingering low level moisture behind the front continues to lead to a fairly expansive area of cloudiness across the Central Plains. However, recent visible satellite imagery shows skies beginning to clear from south to north across Kansas and Oklahoma. Meanwhile, high pressure continues to nose down the east side of the Rockies and will eventually move over Kansas later tonight through tomorrow. This should allow at least a brief window where the surface winds will decouple and become generally light. This combined with at least partial clearing should allow lows to fall into the low to mid 30s along the I-70 corridor, especially sheltered areas, with areas of frost developing by early Thursday morning. Given this potential, we decided to go ahead and issue a Frost Advisory for portions of central Kansas through 9 am Thursday morning. Later Thursday through Friday, a positively-tilted s/w trough will move out of the NRN Rockies and across the Plains states. Ahead of this trough, a moist and somewhat convergent flow, along with weak to modest frontogenesis, and low/mid level warm air advection should allow a band of moderate precipitation to develop from eastern Colorado through much of Kansas Thursday evening through Friday morning. This looks to be a quick-hitting system with most areas seeing a quarter of an inch or less. However, forecast soundings show some steeper mid-level lapse rates and nearly unidirectional shear which could aid in the development of a narrower mesoscale band of heavier rain and embedded thunder with amounts potentially reaching 0.25 to 0.50". While not overly impressive, any additional rain following the recent flooding could at the very least slow rivers from falling as fast as originally forecast. Those with interests along rivers are encouraged to continue to monitor levels through the end of the week. Martin .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The weather pattern turns a bit more complex going into the upcoming weekend. The remains of Sergio (now a Tropical Storm in the Eastern Pacific) are still forecast to get pulled northeast into the Southern Plains thanks to an upper level low sitting off the CA Coast. Meanwhile, a northern stream system is forecast to dive south out of Canada. Medium range guidance is in good agreement phasing the remains of Sergio with the northern stream system, with Sergio transitioning to a mid-latitude system. As the phasing occurs, a precipitation shield/deformation axis will likely develop on the NW side of the system, cutting from west Texas through the Ozarks over the weekend. Model consensus continues to indicate the axis of heaviest precip will remain south of our forecast area, but it is still too early to give the all-clear on that. At the moment, there is still some potential for a half inch or more of rain across far southern/southeastern Kansas. Lastly, the northern stream system may be accompanied by some of the coldest air of the season, locally, as the whole system departs the region. This could lead to the first widespread frost/freeze conditions for central and southeast Kansas by Monday morning. At this time, it looks like the coldest air will lag the precip shield, but there is a non-zero chance that the rain may end as a few snowflakes along the I-70 corridor. It must be stressed, though, that there are some considerable model differences regarding temperatures and precip in that area and this potential is far from a certainty. Martin && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 654 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Diurnally driven clouds will slowly dissipate after sunset, with mostly clear skies expected overnight. As the overnight progresses, a Canadian ridge of high pressure will shift over the forecast area with winds becoming light variable by sunrise on Thu. Ketcham && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Numerous flood warnings remain in effect at this time, so please continue to monitor statements specific to your local area. The next round of rainfall comes Thursday evening through Friday morning. We are expecting 0.25" or less for most areas with this event. However, a band of heavier rain may impact a portion of central or southeast Kansas with amounts potentially reaching a half an inch. The remains of Tropical Storm Sergio may impact southern Kansas with additional rainfall this weekend, but confidence in precipitation amounts is low. Based on the latest model forecasts, the axis of heaviest precipitation looks to be focused just south of Kansas. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 39 56 47 56 / 0 0 80 90 Hutchinson 37 54 45 55 / 0 0 90 90 Newton 37 55 46 53 / 0 0 90 90 ElDorado 38 56 46 53 / 0 0 80 90 Winfield-KWLD 40 58 47 57 / 0 0 70 80 Russell 34 52 43 55 / 0 0 90 80 Great Bend 35 52 43 56 / 0 0 90 80 Salina 35 54 44 53 / 0 0 90 90 McPherson 35 54 44 54 / 0 0 90 90 Coffeyville 41 59 47 56 / 0 0 50 90 Chanute 39 57 46 53 / 0 0 60 90 Iola 38 57 45 52 / 0 0 60 90 Parsons-KPPF 40 59 46 55 / 0 0 50 90 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ032-033-047- 048. && $$ SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...RM AVIATION...Ketcham HYDROLOGY...RM