735 FXUS63 KICT 101727 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1227 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night) Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Today-Thu: As expected, the deep upper-deck trof that had been situated over the western U.S. is being kicked NE across the southern & central plains early this morning by the broad upper-deck trof, that last night was situated from Alberta to along the WA/OR state line, as it digs across the NV/UT state line. Both waves will shear as they phase with each other as they cross the Upper MS Valley early this eve. This would enable a semi-inverted surface ridge to punch SE across KS tonight/early Thu morning. This would produce the coldest weather we've seen this fall with temps along I-70 dipping to around 35F early Thu morning. There has been some discussion as to whether a Frost Advisory is warranted for these areas. Checked swing on issuance as the NW winds ~10 mph should prevent maximum radiational cooling from being realized. Thu to be coolest day of the week as N-NE winds would limit highs to the 50s with the cooler temps in the 3 northwestern-most counties. Thu Night-Fri Night: Rain returns late Thu night as the remnants of Hurricane Sergio, which has been approaching Baja CA during the night, begin to inject much higher octane moisture from roughly the Western Rio Grande to the TX/OK Panhandles. Rain would develop across the western & southern plains then spread across KS from late Thu night until Fri eve. With so much flooding having occurred over the past 3 days the QPFs will need to be watched closely. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Sat-Sunday Night: A predominantly wet weekend is still anticipated as strengthening low pressure moves generally E/NE across the southern plains from Sat afternoon thru Sat night. The resulting pronounced wrap-around will likely produce copious rainfalls, especially across southeast KS Sat night. Mon-Tue: Dry weather returns as large high pressure spreads east across the southern plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 MVFR ceilings are being observed at all sites for the beginning of the 18z TAF forecast period. Expecting these MVFR ceilings to lift after a couple of hours this afternoon, giving way to VFR flight conditions at all area airports for the remainder of the period. with only a few higher clouds heading into this evening and overnight tonight. Winds should remain out of the north/northwest throughout the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 57 39 56 45 / 0 0 0 70 Hutchinson 55 37 54 44 / 0 0 0 80 Newton 55 37 55 44 / 0 0 0 70 ElDorado 56 38 56 44 / 0 0 0 60 Winfield-KWLD 58 40 58 46 / 0 0 0 60 Russell 52 34 52 41 / 0 0 0 80 Great Bend 54 35 52 42 / 0 0 0 80 Salina 53 35 54 43 / 0 0 0 80 McPherson 54 35 54 43 / 0 0 0 70 Coffeyville 60 41 59 45 / 0 0 0 30 Chanute 58 39 57 44 / 0 0 0 40 Iola 57 38 57 43 / 0 0 0 40 Parsons-KPPF 59 40 59 45 / 0 0 0 40 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ032-033-047- 048. && $$ SHORT TERM...EPS LONG TERM...EPS AVIATION...TAV