373 
FXUS63 KICT 101143
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
643 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Today-Thu:
As expected, the deep upper-deck trof that had been situated over
the western U.S. is being kicked NE across the southern & central
plains early this morning by the broad upper-deck trof, that last
night was situated from Alberta to along the WA/OR state line, as
it digs across the NV/UT state line. Both waves will shear as they
phase with each other as they cross the Upper MS Valley early this
eve. This would enable a semi-inverted surface ridge to punch SE
across KS tonight/early Thu morning. This would produce the
coldest weather we've seen this fall with temps along I-70 dipping
to around 35F early Thu morning. There has been some discussion as
to whether a Frost Advisory is warranted for these areas. Checked
swing on issuance as the NW winds ~10 mph should prevent maximum
radiational cooling from being realized. Thu to be coolest day of
the week as N-NE winds would limit highs to the 50s with the
cooler temps in the 3 northwestern-most counties.

Thu Night-Fri Night:
Rain returns late Thu night as the remnants of Hurricane Sergio,
which has been approaching Baja CA during the night, begin to
inject much higher octane moisture from roughly the Western Rio
Grande to the TX/OK Panhandles. Rain would develop across the
western & southern plains then spread across KS from late Thu
night until Fri eve. With so much flooding having occurred over
the past 3 days the QPFs will need to be watched closely.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Sat-Sunday Night:
A predominantly wet weekend is still anticipated as strengthening
low pressure moves generally E/NE across the southern plains from
Sat afternoon thru Sat night. The resulting pronounced wrap-around
will likely produce copious rainfalls, especially across southeast
KS Sat night.

Mon-Tue:
Dry weather returns as large high pressure spreads east across the
southern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Main aviation concerns will be low clouds this morning.

Currently have widespread MVFR ceilings in place as cooler low
level air continues to spill in. Current thinking is that these
lower cigs will stick around for a few more hours before clearing
out. Confidence is high that by 18z, most sites will be at VFR
levels. Winds will remain out of the west/nw and will decrease
closer to sunset. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    57  39  55  45 /   0   0   0  70 
Hutchinson      55  37  54  44 /   0   0   0  80 
Newton          55  37  54  44 /   0   0   0  70 
ElDorado        56  38  55  44 /   0   0   0  60 
Winfield-KWLD   58  40  57  46 /   0   0   0  60 
Russell         52  34  51  41 /   0   0   0  80 
Great Bend      54  35  51  42 /   0   0   0  80 
Salina          53  35  54  43 /   0   0   0  80 
McPherson       54  36  54  43 /   0   0   0  70 
Coffeyville     60  42  59  45 /   0   0   0  30 
Chanute         58  40  56  44 /   0   0   0  40 
Iola            57  39  56  43 /   0   0   0  40 
Parsons-KPPF    59  41  58  45 /   0   0   0  40 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...RBL