107 FXUS63 KICT 092342 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 642 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 435 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 The weather pattern that has brought widespread heavy rain and flooding to our entire forecast area over the past few days will finally begin to change, although the threat of heavier precip is not completely over. This afternoon, a longwave trough extends NW to SE, pretty much the length of Western North America. Embedded within the larger trough is a more dynamic and negatively-tilted shortwave trough, currently lifting northeast through west Texas. Strong forcing and a moist/confluent flow ahead of this wave should allow a band of rain, heavy at times, to continue to impact southeast Kansas. In this area, we will keep the Flood Watch going as flash flood guidance remains low and any additional rain will only exacerbate any ongoing flooding. A dry slot evidenced on water vapor imagery continues to nose into central Kansas, while at the same time a strong cold front continues to advance east through the same area. Drying aloft and strong cold air advection in the wake of the front will gradually put an end to the heavy rain from southwest to northeast later this evening/tonight. There will likely be at least a brief period of gusty winds in the wake of the front, but high pressure building in should allow the pressure gradient to relax, with a subsequent decrease in winds. Temps may flirt with the freezing mark by Thursday morning with the high pressure overhead. Later Thursday into Friday, a quick-moving system will likely bring a band of light to moderate rain to the area, with the greatest precip amounts focused along the I-70 corridor along a zone of modest low/mid level frontogenesis. Rainfall amounts look to be 0.25" or less with that system, but higher amounts up to a half an inch cannot be ruled out across northern sections of central Kansas where the greater forcing looks to be focused. By this time, most rivers should be falling, but any additional rainfall could certainly slow those decreases. Please continue to keep up with the latest river flood warnings and statement for the most up-to-date information regarding the ongoing flooding. Martin .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 435 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Attention then turns to the remains of Sergio, which is currently a hurricane in the eastern Pacific. Model guidance, and the latest NHC forecast, is in good agreement pulling this system into the larger trough over the western US. Based on this, the remnants would track across northern Mexico and across northern Texas/Oklahoma this weekend. As the remnants move into the Southern Plains, there looks to be more of a phasing with a northern stream trough dropping south out of Canada. This will likely allow a band of moderate to heavy rain to setup from the Southern Plains through the Mid-MS Valley Region. Current model consensus puts the heaviest axis of rain just to the south of Kansas (mainly focused over Oklahoma). Given the recent rainfall and flooding, though, this will certainly bear watching in the coming days. In the wake of that system, some of the coldest air of the season may move into the the area with the potential of widespread frost not out of the question. But, it is still 5-7 days away and the exact evolution of Sergio and the upper level pattern remains to be seen. Martin && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Surface front will continue to move across forecast this evening. Influx of colder air is producing a transient area of fog immediately behind the front. Ongoing drizzle or light rain will also linger into the evening for much of the area. Slow improvement anticipated overnight, with MVFR ceilings likely lingering into the morning. Anticipating few stratocumulus despite subsidence in the afternoon due to the wet ground/standing water. -Howerton && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 435 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 The widespread, heavy rainfall event is gradually winding down at this time. However, a band of moderate to heavy rain will continue to impact southeast Kansas through this evening. The Flood Watch remains in effect for that area as flash flood guidance remains low and any additional rain will only exacerbate ongoing flooding. Numerous flood warnings remain in effect as many rivers in the area continue to rise. Most rivers look to peak in the WED/THU timeframe before gradually falling. However, additional rainfall Thursday into Friday may slow the falling trend. The remnants of Sergio may bring heavier rain to the Southern Plains, possibly clipping portions of southern Kansas. However, confidence in this is low, and the latest model guidance suggests the heaviest precip will be focused south of Kansas. Martin/JAS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 45 57 39 58 / 40 0 0 0 Hutchinson 42 55 37 55 / 40 0 0 0 Newton 44 55 37 56 / 40 0 0 0 ElDorado 46 56 38 57 / 40 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 46 58 40 59 / 40 0 0 0 Russell 39 52 34 53 / 50 0 0 0 Great Bend 39 54 35 53 / 40 0 0 0 Salina 43 53 35 55 / 40 0 0 0 McPherson 42 54 36 55 / 40 0 0 0 Coffeyville 51 61 42 60 / 60 0 0 0 Chanute 50 58 40 58 / 60 0 0 0 Iola 50 57 39 57 / 60 0 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 51 59 41 59 / 60 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ033-049-052-053- 070>072-094>096-098>100. && $$ SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...RM AVIATION...PJH HYDROLOGY...RM/JAS