900 FXUS63 KICT 091801 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 101 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Forecast Headline: Flood Watch Remains In Effect For All Areas Until 7 AM CDT Wednesday. Today-Early Wed Morning: A DEEP upper-deck trof remains parked from the Northern Rockies to along the AZ/NM state line while a 2nd, broad positively-tilted upper-deck wave is situated primarily from Alberta to the WA/OR state line. The 2nd wave, though still quite broad, will gradually strengthen today & tonight toward, then across, the Great Basin. This would finally force the initial wave east across the Southern Rockies late tonight with the deamplifying wave reaching KS, Western OK, & West TX early Wed morning. The evolving upper-deck pattern would drive a cold front E/SE across KS late tonight. This would, of course, drive the axis of heaviest rains & embedded thunderstorms east as well. The rain & embedded thunderstorms will clear most of KICT Country late Tue night with the rains confined to far Southeast KS early Wed morning. This has been consistent for about the past 3 days. Until then, heavy rains, accentuated by the embedded thunderstorms, would continue to cause further flooding across Central & eastern KS today & tonight. Therefore the Flood Watch remains unchanged in all respects. In Southeast KS the airmass destabilizes this afternoon as evidenced by MLCAPES that'll likely increase to around 2,000 J/KG. With deep-layer bulk shear increasing in response to the approaching initial wave to 45 to 50kts (per NAM) the severe thunderstorm potential is slowly increasing for Southeast KS this afternoon & this evening. While all 3 modes are possible, the greatest threats would be damaging winds & even a few tornadoes in addition to heavy rains. Wed-Thu Night: Quiet weather finally returns as the departing, & shearing, upper wave crosses the MS Valley, allowing a broad inverted surface ridge to spread from the Northern Plains to North TX. The intermission would be short-lived as a strong, positively tilted mid-upper wave surges E/SE from the Northern Rockies to toward the Northern Plains. At this time, light-moderate rains are expected to greatly increase across most of KS late Thu night with far Southeast KS the exception. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Next Weekend: Most of next weekend will be wet as the next compact surface low is scheduled to move across NM & into the TX Panhandle Fri & Fri night. This would induce strengthening isentropic ascent across KICT Country, especially Fri Night & Sat when the low would move along the Red River. Such movement would drag another cold front across most of KS, so we're in for another wet weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Primary Aviation concerns: Areas of RA and TSRA with widespread IFR/MVFR conditions through this evening. A dynamic, fall storm system continues to bring widespread SHRA and isolated TSRA to the region this afternoon. Eventually, a strong cold front will sweep through this evening/tonight with SHRA/TSRA activity ending from west to east. Gusty winds will likely develop behind this front later tonight through Wednesday. Before then, though, widespread IFR/MVFR conditions can be expected with the SHRA/TSRA activity. Across SE KS, a line of TSRA may be accompanied by wind gusts in excess of 40-50kt. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out either. The main window for that potential looks to be through about 22z this afternoon. In the wake of the front, rising CIGs are expected with a return to VFR conditions for much of the area. - Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 69 45 57 40 / 100 60 0 0 Hutchinson 64 42 55 38 / 100 40 0 0 Newton 68 44 55 38 / 100 70 0 0 ElDorado 70 46 56 38 / 100 80 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 70 46 58 40 / 100 80 0 0 Russell 49 39 52 35 / 100 20 0 0 Great Bend 50 39 54 36 / 100 20 0 0 Salina 62 43 53 36 / 100 50 0 0 McPherson 65 42 54 36 / 100 50 0 0 Coffeyville 78 51 61 42 / 100 90 0 0 Chanute 76 50 58 40 / 100 90 0 0 Iola 76 50 57 40 / 100 90 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 77 51 59 41 / 100 90 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ032-033-047>053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ SHORT TERM...EPS LONG TERM...EPS AVIATION...RM