381 FXUS64 KHUN 110431 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1131 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... For 06Z TAFS. && .NEAR TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 930 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The center of Hurricane Michael continues to move very quickly north-northeast at 17 mph across southwestern Georgia. It still has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph along with higher gusts. It's minimum central pressure has increased to 960 MB. Although it is weakening - additional wind damage, tornadoes, and flash flooding will likely continue along its path as it weakens and curves more to the east across central South Carolina through Thursday. Closer to home over the Tennessee Valley, some light to moderate rain extends northward upstream of Michael into northeastern Alabama. This will likely continue for a few more hours before moving east into far eastern Tennessee. This movement east will be spurred by an approaching cold front that finally gets pushed through the area by energy aloft associated with the main jetstream sweeping eastward late tonight into daybreak on Thursday. Very little instability is show in meso-analysis and in model soundings overnight over northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Also, very little shear is seen in soundings as well. Therefore, took thunderstorms out of the forecast. High PWATS around 2 inches will likely linger ahead and near the approaching front though through 4 AM or 5 AM in northeastern Alabama (a bit sooner in NW AL - around 1 AM or 2 AM). Thus some showers could produce some briefly heavy rainfall at times. Not looking at any flooding rains with this (mainly due to weaker nature of lift present), but a good quarter to half inch of rainfall is possible in some spots. The highest rain chances look to be over northeastern Alabama due to stronger forcing/convergence extending well north of Hurricane Michael into that area. Then, scattered showers will likely continue to develop and move east along the front that will push through northeastern Alabama around daybreak on Thursday. Tweaked temperatures to keep higher lows in southeastern portions of the area based on current observation trends to our northwest. West of I-65 will be a bit cool, as temperatures should drop into the upper 50s/lower 60s with strong cold/dry air advection behind the front. Elsewhere, lows will still be a bit warm only dropping into the mid to upper 60s. .SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday) Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Lingering showers in the morning will end by noon, as drier air filters in across the region. One change you'll note are high temperatures "only" in the lower 70s; which is notably cooler than the much warmer readings we've had as of late. The real autumn air will arrive tonight, as high pressure over the northern plains builds to the southeast. This mix of continental Canadian air will result in lows tumbling into the low/mid 40s. A quick glance at older climate data suggest that late April was the last time it got this cold here. A continuation of dry and cooler conditions will continue for the remainder of the work week, with highs in the mid/upper 60s on Friday, and lows in the mid/upper 40s Friday night. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 On Saturday, a trough will be lifting out of the OH Valley with sfc high pressure building into the region. This will leave conditions dry on Saturday and a tad warmer with daytime highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Southeasterly/southerly winds will return Saturday night as the sfc high lifts northeast and ahead of another system. A trough will dig out of southern Canada and into the Plains on Sunday and start to swing east. The ECMWF is now more in line with the GFS on lifting the remnants of Sergio up and out ahead of the trough, rather than phasing with it, but is weaker. We probably will not have enough time to recover moisture to get anything from it as it passes by so kept Saturday night dry. The systems associated with the upper-level trough will have a sfc low just north of the Great Lakes with a cold front trailing down into TX. This front will push into the TN Valley Sunday night/Monday morning. The GFS is moving the front faster than than the ECMWF and bringing more QPF due to it keeping a ridge farther south. To accommodate for the discrepancy between the GFS and ECMWF on how far the ridge will build into the southeast, and the pace of the front, lowered POPS a little bit through the extended. The front will bring cooler temps with highs in the mid/upper 60s and overnight lows in the 40s-50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Showers have moved east of KMSL and some 4000 foot cigs are still in place. However, this should quickly push quickly east and by 08Z become scattered in nature. Left VCSH in at predominantly between 06Z and 09Z with a tempo for -SHRA during that time. at KHSV. Some MVFR vsbys or cigs are possible with any -SHRA activity. As a front moves east tonight, winds should pick up behind it ~ 08Z at KMSL and 09Z at KHSV. Expect a return to VFR conditions at KHSV by 09Z. Otherwise, winds should remain gusty from the northwest up to 18 knots until sunset on Thursday. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM...RSB LONG TERM...JMS AVIATION...KTW For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.