338 FXUS64 KHUN 102049 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 349 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .NEAR TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Hurricane Michael now over land, was headed to the NE over the FL Panhandle nearing the FL/AL/GA border region. It was still a Cat 4 hurricane, with sustained winds in the 140 mph and minimum pressure of 927mb. It at landfall unofficially was the 3rd strongest landfalling system at 919mb - right ahead of Katrina at 920mb, and behind the Labor Day storm of 1935 and Andrew. That system will have little serious impact on our sensible weather as it tracks further east from this region. Our next weather maker in part was a weak front extending southward from eastern Mississippi to east of Gulfport. A stronger cold front was moving east, extending from western Wisconsin to west of Memphis to SE Texas. A line of showers showers was forming from north of Nashville to along the NE MS/NW AL border region. Another area of showers somewhat associated with Michael were creeping to the NW from central AL/GA. These showers should overspread more of the area this afternoon. The showers from the west should also intensify somewhat as they begin advancing eastward late in the afternoon and this evening. Have an interesting setup regarding rain chances this evening - somewhat higher to the east in association with the moisture creeping northward, and somewhat lesser to the west with the approaching front. Thunderstorms this evening should remain sub-severe for the most part, but gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall (given precip water amounts in the ~2" range exist in the tropical like airmass that has been across the area the past week or so. The front should move across the region from west to east tonight, helping to end rain chances during the overnight. Low temperatures will cool somewhat, ranging from the mid 50s NW Alabama to mid 60s NE Alabama. .SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday) Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Lingering showers in the morning will end by noon, as drier air filters in across the region. One change you'll note are high temperatures "only" in the lower 70s; which is notably cooler than the much warmer readings we've had as of late. The real autumn air will arrive tonight, as high pressure over the northern plains builds to the southeast. This mix of continental Canadian air will result in lows tumbling into the low/mid 40s. A quick glance at older climate data suggest that late April was the last time it got this cold here. A continuation of dry and cooler conditions will continue for the remainder of the work week, with highs in the mid/upper 60s on Friday, and lows in the mid/upper 40s Friday night. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 On Saturday, a trough will be lifting out of the OH Valley with sfc high pressure building into the region. This will leave conditions dry on Saturday and a tad warmer with daytime highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Southeasterly/southerly winds will return Saturday night as the sfc high lifts northeast and ahead of another system. A trough will dig out of southern Canada and into the Plains on Sunday and start to swing east. The ECMWF is now more in line with the GFS on lifting the remnants of Sergio up and out ahead of the trough, rather than phasing with it, but is weaker. We probably will not have enough time to recover moisture to get anything from it as it passes by so kept Saturday night dry. The systems associated with the upper-level trough will have a sfc low just north of the Great Lakes with a cold front trailing down into TX. This front will push into the TN Valley Sunday night/Monday morning. The GFS is moving the front faster than than the ECMWF and bringing more QPF due to it keeping a ridge farther south. To accommodate for the discrepancy between the GFS and ECMWF on how far the ridge will build into the southeast, and the pace of the front, lowered POPS a little bit through the extended. The front will bring cooler temps with highs in the mid/upper 60s and overnight lows in the 40s-50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 108 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 CIGs across the area were mostly in the MVFR range, rising to VFR at times from daytime heating and mixing. A cold front extending north/ south from southern Illinois to central Mississippi moving eastward, will help develop scattered to numerous showers, and isolated t-storms this afternoon and early evening. The local radars already indicated showers forming near the NE MS/NW AL border region. The front should reach the KMSL terminal after sunset, and the KHSV airport 9-10 PM. Winds west of the front will become WNW then NW late tonight. Winds should also increase into the 10-20kt range, at times gusty late tonight and on Thu. VFR conditions should return from west to east in the late night, as drier air filters in from the NW. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM...RSB LONG TERM...JMS AVIATION...RSB For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.