000 FXUS64 KHUN 101547 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1047 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today) Issued at 1047 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The big weather news of the day is very powerful Category 4 Hurricane Michael as it bears down on the Florida panhandle. As of 1030 AM, it was about 60 miles SSW of Panama City (headed that direction), with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph and a central pressure of 928mb or 27.41". The storm will be making landfall within the next few hours, then rapidly head more northeast, nearing I-75 between Valdosta and Macon GA around midnight. Despite the strength of the storm, it will have little affect with our sensible weather given it will remain well to the south and east of here. Our weather maker will be the passage of a "real" cold front, that will begin a trend of more autumn like weather. High temperatures this afternoon nearing 80 (or possibly into the lower 80s) will be the last warm day for a good while, given cooler and drier air filtering. Before then, clouds preceding the hurricane will overspread the region, making for a generally cloudy day. Warm air associated with that system, and already in place will effectively make for temperatures up to a few degrees warmer than they are now, despite a lack of more direct sun. The warmth, available moisture (precipitable water amounts in the 1.8" range - very high for this time of year, should rise to near 2") towards the early evening as the frontal boundary nears. The front should reach NW ALabama around sunset, and be east of the after midnight. Convergence/lift provided by the front and will result in the formation of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Showers should be the predominate precip, with thunder more isolated. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds could accompany the stronger storms. Forecast update wise, reduced winds to around the 10 mph range for the remainder of the morning and 5-10 mph this afternoon. Delayed the higher rain chances till later today. .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The front mentioned above will be exiting the area to the east during the morning hours Thursday. Kept some light rain in the forecast across NE AL and southern middle TN to start Thursday but these chances will end by the noon hour. Hurricane Michael should be moving across NC/SC during the day Thursday. The pressure gradient strengthens over the area and we should end up with a breezy Thursday with gusts upwards of 20 to 25 mph possible. Going to have to watch temps/cloud cover for Thursday as think models are possibly a bit quick to scour out clouds in the wake of the front. We may end up with mostly cloudy conditions and have at least tried to show a slower clearing of clouds for Thursday. Temps may need to get bumped down a few degrees if we do end up cloudy for Thursday but we'll wait to see how the front progresses across the area before making any major changes. The strong CAA doesn't arrive until Thursday evening with temps forecast to drop between 20 to 30 degrees from Thursday morning to Friday morning. It'll be a crisp fall morning Friday with values in the mid 40s for the entire TN Valley. Fun climate fact: you've got to look back all the way to April 30th of this year for the last time we had lows in the 40s. Highs on Friday should remain below the 70 degree mark for much of the area as good CAA continues. Another climate fact: last time we had highs below 70 degrees, April 26th this year. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Models differ slightly on the weekend forecast as they have a quick moving shortwave crossing the OH Valley Friday night into Saturday. The ECMWF and to some extent the NAM have precip moving across central/northern TN early Saturday morning. Even with the ample forcing associated with the system, think this is a bit overdone due to the extent of dry air across the area. So, other than some slight increase in cloud cover we should remain rain free through Saturday. Temps Friday night may end up a few degrees warmer in the mid to upper 40s. By Saturday this trough will be off to the east and winds will have shifted to the E/SE in response to another system developing over the southern Plains. Highs will be a little warmer for Saturday with values in to the lower 70s. More significant models differences exist as a trough digs S/SE into the plains and the system starts to kick east. These differences are tied to how the models handle the speed of the remnants of Hurricane Sergio in the eastern Pacific. The GFS is the fastest solution and has the system and front completely through the area by sunrise Monday. The ECMWF is much slower and phases the remnants with the trough digging into the plains. This would result in a more robust system with stronger shear and higher rain chances as a cold front moves across the area. The GFS version is so quick that the two can never phase and we end with weaker forcing along front and lower rain chances. Given these uncertainties will go with a blend of solutions with a lean more towards the ECMWF. Expect another cool down behind this system with lows back down into the 40s and highs in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 A mixture of MVFR and VFR cigs exist across the TN Valley this morning. Expect cigs to improve through the day with bases around 3,500ft. Brief drops in cigs to 1,500ft are possible with any showers or storms that develop today. Still uncertain on timing of precip into the terminals today but shower/storms should be ending from west to east between 00z to 08z. Winds start out of the E/SE around 10kts with a few gusts to 15kts possible this morning. Then as a cold front moves into the area expect winds to switch to the W/NW by 06-08z. Winds will be gusty behind the front with gusts to 12kts. Stronger winds are forecast for Thursday. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM...Stumpf LONG TERM...Stumpf AVIATION...Stumpf For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.