577 FXUS64 KHUN 100520 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1220 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... For 06Z TAFS. && .NEAR TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 1013 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Michael unfortunately continues to strengthen this evening, becoming an even more dangerous hurricane. The 10 PM advisory has strengthened its maximum sustained winds to 125 mph and its central pressure to 947 MB. The advisory had it making landfall still near the Panama City, FL sometime tomorrow afternoon. Its current path should keep it and most effects well to the south of the Tennessee Valley. Increasing lower level moisture and some isentropic lift moving into northern Alabama from Georgia around midnight could allow some isolated showers to develop the remainder of the evening hours near the AL/GA border. This lift will spread west northwest overnight. Due to weak nature of the lift, think that only isolated to widely scattered (20-30 percent) coverage of showers is warranted and is supported by most of the new model data. The better chance of showers (30 percent) will remain east of I-65 overnight. The isentropic lift should create a fairly widespread deck of clouds across the area despite very low rainfall chances. Winds should pick up during this time as well. Currently winds are between 8 and 12 mph in some locations. Models sounding suggest that around midnight and through about 4 or 5 am, some locations could gust to between 15 and 20 mph. Between the breezy conditions and cloud cover, believe that lows will be quite warm overnight, with lows only dropping to between 71 and 73 degrees in most locations. The exception will be northeastern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee, where lows could dip to around 69 degrees. .SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 405 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 The weakening of the eastern ridge will allow a cold front currently positioned from the southern Great Lakes to the southern plains to move eastward. This front should make a move across the Tennessee Valley during Thursday. Lower level moisture pooling ahead of the front will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the region. Overall storm strength at this time does not look particularly strong or severe, but gusty winds and heavy downpours looks to be the main threats from the stronger storms. High temperatures into the lower 80s on Wednesday will be a last warm spell in a while, as more clouds than sun, and daily chances for showers will help make for cooler temperatures (aided by longer fall nights). Temperatures on Thursday should finally range a tad below seasonable norms into the lower 70s. Colder air finally making its mark on the Valley will bring low temperatures into the mid and upper 40s Thursday night - showing that autumn conditions have finally arrived. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 405 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Another Pacific hurricane, Sergio is forecast to become absorbed into the western trough late this week, helping the trough to remain over the Baja region into early next week. For this region, drier and cooler conditions will prevail for the remainder of the work week, as high pressure building in from the NW controls the weather situation. The high exiting to the east during Saturday will bring back a return southerly flow. This southerly flow, a moisture return, and approach of another system ejecting from the upper system to our SW, will also bring back clouds and rain chances to begin a new week - for Sunday and Monday. Unlike earlier this week, high temperatures should be in the 60s on Friday, warming back into the 70s for the weekend and early next week. Lows will mostly range in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 An MVFR deck between 1,500-2,500ft is pushing N/NW towards the TN Valley from central GA. Light rain and an even lower IFR deck exists over central GA and could make it into the area around sunrise. But confidence is low is the IFR cigs making into HSV/MSL terminals. Winds could be gusty at times out of the E/SE with gusts up to 20kts possible through the early morning hours. Winds relax a bit during the day with speeds holding around 10kts. Should see some improvement in cigs after sunrise as well to MVFR/VFR. SHRA and a return of MVFR to possibly IFR cigs are then possible towards the end of the current TAF period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM...RSB LONG TERM...RSB AVIATION...Stumpf For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.