276 
FXUS66 KHNX 111030
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
330 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...With the exception of isolated showers over the high 
Sierra today, dry weather will prevail over the central California
interior through the middle of next week. Temperatures will be 
slightly cooler than normal today. Friday through next Wednesday 
will bring much warmer afternoons. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...WV indicating an upper shortwave which dropped 
southward through Norcal last evening is now tracking east through
the Great Basin area, but not before brushing the Yosemite Park 
area with a period of increased clouds cover and isolated 
showers. Mesowest indicating a few locations in the Southern 
Sierra Nevada north of Kings Canyon picked up a hundredth or two 
of an inch of liquid precipitation. Temperatures are trending a 
few degrees cooler than yday as a northerly flow is pushing a 
cooler airmass into our area.

WRF indicating another mostly sunny day today across much of our
area with temperatures running slightly below seasonal normals.
Another upper level shortwave is progged to drop southward through
Norcal today and reach central CA by this afternoon. RH progs are
indicating that this system is moisture starved. However, it will
provide for enough instability for a chance of showers over the 
higher elevations of the Southern Sierra Nevada this afternoon 
and evening with the snow level running around 9000 feet. The
shortwave is then progged to drop southwest off the Socal coast
tonight and Friday and close off into an upper low as an upper 
ridge builds in over the Pac NW and Norcal. The resulting 
interaction between the building ridge and the closed low 
underneath it will for a rex block off the CA coast with a dry 
offshore flow pattern prevailing over central CA. Rises in heights
and thicknesses on Friday and Saturday will result in a warming 
trend taking place over our area and temperatures will rise to 
several degrees above seasonal normals in the San Joaquin valley 
by Saturday. 

The offshore low is then progged to drift toward the Socal coast 
on Friday Night and track inland near the US/Mexico border on
Saturday. RH progs are showing that the deeper moisture sufficient
for precipitation with the low remaining well to the south of our 
area so we do not anticipate any precipitation in our CWFA with 
this feature in our area as it moves inland. The low is then 
progged to push through southern AZ on Sunday as the dry upper 
ridge becomes established near the western CONUS coast.

The medium range models are in fairly good agreement with the 
upper ridge slowly building inland across CA early next week. This
will result in a period of mostly clear skies, dry weather and 
above normal temperatures for our area for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers over the southern Sierra Nevada 
between 18Z Thursday and 06Z Friday will produce areas of MVFR 
conditions along with local IFR and terrain obscurations. VFR 
conditions will otherwise prevail over the Central CA Interior for
at least the next 24 hours. 

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

public...DS
avn/fw...JEB
synopsis...DS

weather.gov/hanford