393 
FXUS64 KHGX 110857
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
357 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...

It has been a long time since a surface analysis over SE Texas has 
shown northerly winds and high pressure over the southern Plains. 
Temperatures over SE Texas this morning are in the 60s finally and 
not just the upper 60s but the low 60s with even a few 50s up 
towards Crockett. Upper level analysis has basically a broad trough 
from the northern Plains through the Great Basin with the jet stream 
coming from the southern Rockies through the Great Lakes. This is 
helping move now Tropical Storm Michael across the Carolinas and out 
into the Atlantic around the Bermuda high. For SE Texas this means 
quiet conditions with high temperatures in the 70s/80s. Return flow 
from the Gulf should set up tomorrow into Saturday.

Overpeck

.LONG TERM (Friday through Thursday)...

Winds start to become onshore again on Friday, allowing for some 
moisture to return and high temperatures to creep back up into 
the mid 80s across most of the area for Saturday and Sunday. Rain 
chances also increase Saturday night into early next week with 
another cold front passage. Expect showers and thunderstorms ahead
of and along the cold front itself, which should push through 
late Sunday or Sunday night. Although this front is fairly strong 
and expected to knock temperatures down quite a bit, it is also 
very shallow, with SW flow remaining in place near and above 850mb
for several days after the surface frontal passage. This will 
keep conditions quite cloudy with chances for rain lingering in 
the forecast through midweek. The combination of the cold air 
mass and overcast conditions will keep high temperatures pretty 
cool Monday and Tuesday with some of the far northern zones 
struggling to climb out of the 50s. Temperatures gradually start
to rebound heading into the second half of the week.

11

&&

.MARINE...
Swells from Michael have subsided quite a bit but there is still a 
mix of swell/wind wave across the Upper Texas Coast. Offshore winds 
should allow for lower tide levels today into Friday. The threat for 
rip currents should also be lower today with the lower seas and 
offshore winds. The current plan is to allow all coastal and marine 
hazards to expire this morning. High pressure moves east allowing 
for east and then southeast winds Friday into Saturday. Southeast 
winds increase to around 15 to 20 knots Saturday afternoon and 
night. Caution flags may be needed, but these winds will also build 
seas and likely increase the threat for rip currents. Tide levels 
may again push above normal with high tides Saturday evening. This 
may be another coastal flood event and we will need to monitor tide 
levels over the weekend. Synoptic models have slowed down the next 
front to be more on Monday instead of Sunday. Offshore winds should 
peak Monday night into Tuesday as a result.

Overpeck


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      78  59  81  65  84 /   0   0  10  10  20 
Houston (IAH)              81  61  81  65  85 /   0  10  10  10  10 
Galveston (GLS)            79  71  80  74  83 /   0  10  10  10  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for the 
     following zones: Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 1 PM CDT this 
     afternoon for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...11
Aviation/Marine...39