016 FXUS64 KHGX 101501 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1001 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .DISCUSSION... Did not make any significant changes on the morning update. Cold front will be working its way through the area today, and still anticipating decreasing clouds for most locations. Cooler and drier weather can be expected for the next couple of days. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ AVIATION...[12Z TAF ISSUANCE] Showers along a pre-frontal trough are now east of any TAF sites but there are some MVFR ceilings with it that should only impact the Houston terminals for another hour or so before becoming scattered. The actual front is north of KCLL with both satellite and radar imagery showing gravity waves/undular bore with it. As this front pushes into the area there may be some SCT/BKN MVFR decks with it. Ceilings currently behind the front are IFR/MVFR but expect mixing during the day to help thin out cloud cover. Skies should go scattered to clear by mid day with just a few clouds in the afternoon. Winds should increase from the north as well with maybe a few gusts around 15 knots. Overpeck PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)... It's hard to focus on our own weather when there is a CAT 4 hurricane in the Gulf. Thankfully for us Hurricane Michael will make a big impact on Florida. Monitor NHC and NWS Tallahassee for more information. They are doing a tremendous job. Radar shows a line of showers from Brenham to Huntsville this morning. This activity looks to be along a prefrontal trough based on surface analysis. The actual frontal boundary was located back over central Texas just north of Waco. GOES 16 NT Microphysics imagery picks up this boundary quite well with the edge of postfrontal cloud cover. Ahead of the front there has been some clearing which has allowed some fog to develop. We may need to monitor this for KCLL for aviation impacts. Otherwise there is enough cloud cover over SE Texas that fog may not develop. HRRR seems to have a decent handle on the near term trends with convection and the front. Convection should dissipate as it moves into a more stable airmass turned over by yesterday's convection and any upper level support moving off to the north and northeast. Front should arrive in the area around 15Z with northerly winds developing. Drier air should arrive in the afternoon as dewpoints drop into the low 60s. Dewpoints in the 50s will be possible for Thursday. This means that rain chances should be ending this morning as the front pushes through the area and off the coast. Overpeck LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday Night)... Warm and dry weather is expected into the weekend in the wake of today's front. Although the front will only shave a few degrees off high temperatures, much drier air in the wake of the front will bring noticeably lower humidity and low temperatures in the mid 50s and 60s. Winds begin to come around to onshore again Friday into Saturday, allowing for some moisture return on Saturday and Sunday ahead of the next front currently forecast to push through Sunday night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected out ahead of the front starting as early as Saturday night over the northern zones, as well as along the front itself Sunday night. Much cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of this front, dropping high temperatures into the 60s and 70s to start the work week. Another reinforcing front may push into the area around mid-week next week. 11 MARINE... Surface analysis this morning shows one outflow boundary out in the near shore waters of the Gulf which had a few showers along it. Those have since weakened while moving east. Overall winds have decreased due to Hurricane Michael in the eastern Gulf and a front approaching the area. Hurricane Michael continues to support easterly winds across the northern Gulf. Higher periods swells should continue to impact the coast and cause higher surf and wave run up on beaches. Due to this tides will be higher with coastal flooding occuring. Strong rip currents will also impact Gulf facing beaches. Right now current timing of hazards looks on track so we will keep SCA/SCEC going for the offshore waters. The coast will feature combination of coastal flood warning/advisory with beach hazards statement. These may need to be extended depending upon conditions at high tide this afternoon but the trend should be for tide levels to be decreasing as swells subside. Cold front should push off the coast late this evening which should help push seas down. Low seas should develop by Friday/Saturday with another stronger front expected Sunday night into Monday. Overpeck && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 80 57 78 59 80 / 10 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 86 62 81 61 80 / 10 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 85 71 80 70 79 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the following zones: Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston... Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda... Matagorda Islands. Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$