170 
FXUS64 KHGX 100255
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
955 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Shortwave is pushing ne and out of the region. Convection is
tapering off as overall lift/forcing weakens. Lingering boundary
and outflows generally southeast of Highway 59 may still provide
enough of a focus for isolated to scattered shra/tstms overnight,
but overall coverage trend should be downward. Cold front itself
is moving thru the Panhandle at this hour and should be moving
into and thru se Tx during the morning hours Wed...with noticeably
drier air moving in during the afternoon hours. For the 
update...tweaked POPs and temps based on latest trends mentioned 
above. Also added some patchy fog.

As far as marine issues go...seas are in the 4-6 foot range at
10-12sec. These should go up another couple feet and periods
increase close to 13 sec overnight. Considering we have already
seen coastal flooding on Bolivar and the west end of Galveston
Island, suspect we'll see additional issues at the high tide late
tonight as wave run up will be even higher. Went ahead and
expanded the Coastal Flood Warning into coastal Brazoria County
where we'll probably see some flooding from San Luis Pass along
the Blue Water Highway and also Beach Drive in Surfside. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ 
AVIATION... 
A line of showers/thunderstorms will be main issue 
these next few hours as it slowly moves across SE TX from NW to 
SE. We could see weakening around sunset (with the loss of 
heating)...but did keep with VCTS/TEMPO groups for sites still in 
its path. Shorter range guidance indicating the possibility of 
another line of SHRA/TSRAs as the main cold front moves through 
overnight. For now, did keep with mainly VCSH for this time frame.
After FROPA, will be expecting VFR conditions as north winds 
prevail. 41


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      68  82  58  80  59 /  30  10   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)              72  87  62  82  61 /  70  10   0   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)            77  87  71  81  70 /  40  20   0   0   0 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for the 
     following zones: Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...
     Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...
     Matagorda Islands.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for the following 
     zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Galveston Island and 
     Bolivar Peninsula.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Wednesday evening 
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following 
     zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX 
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX 
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$