507 FXUS64 KHGX 092107 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 407 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .DISCUSSION... Messy weather with scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing in the moist axis across the eastern counties and also in a separate area ahead of the incoming Pacific cold front. Still a threat of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in the western areas where slightly greater shear and instability still linger but as the evening progresses shear should drop off quickly and just have the instability to deal with in the storms. Still pulsey with gusty winds and can't rule out a few small hailers. Cold front pushes through tonight and rain chances with the front overnight still high mainly north of the I-10 corridor but with minimal severe threat. Cold front should be off the coast by 7-9 am. Rain chances fall off quickly Wednesday morning with just some lingering showers near the coast and into the coastal waters as 850 flow comes around and capping/drying take place. Wednesday afternoon through Thursday will finally feel like Fall. Warm days and cool nights. Friday into Saturday is the transition as pressure quickly falls in west Texas and moistening easterly flow returns. GFS and ECMWF begin to differ big time with the next front. Saturday into Sunday the system should boost temperatures and have trended warmer then Sunday into Monday the cold front sweeps through. Again trended toward the ECMWF with slower frontal passage so warmer then Sunday into Monday higher rain chances. Some of it may be more of an moist overrunning pattern. Expect changes in the upcoming packages. Tides...minor coastal flooding around Bolivar and with the arrival of increasing swell from Hurricane Michael will see coastal flooding worsen. Will maintain the advisory for Harris/Brazoria/Matagorda and increase it to a Coastal Flood Warning for Galveston/Chambers county. Significant impacts expected on 87 and canal flooding on the bay side. Rollover pass is flooded as well. Strong rip currents already and these should worsen as well...swimming could be very dangerous on the Gulf side. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 68 81 58 80 59 / 60 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 72 86 62 82 61 / 50 10 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 77 86 71 81 70 / 40 10 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Thursday morning for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Discussion...45 Aviation/Marine...24