424 FXUS61 KGYX 092025 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 425 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An unseasonably warm southerly flow will continue across the area into Wednesday. A backdoor cold front will drop south and west across the area late Wednesday and Wednesday night followed by a northeast flow of much cooler air. An occluded front will sweep through the region Thursday bringing colder and drier air for Friday. The remnants of tropical system Michael will pass south of New England Friday. High pressure will gradually build towards New England from the Midwest beginning Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... At 18z...a west east frontal boundary extended from the Gaspe Peninsula through southern Quebec and Southern Ontario into the upper Great Lakes. A 1029 millibar high was centered southeast of Cape Cod. The return flow around the surface high was transporting an unseasonably warm and humid airmass into the region. While the earlier low clouds had burned off on GOES visible imagery across much of the coastal plain...scattered to broken low clouds were lingering elsewhere. NWS Doppler Radar showed a few widely scattered echoes near the international border...otherwise a dry afternoon across the area. For tonight...the area remains in the warm sector with skies averaging partly cloudy. There could be a spot shower over northern areas as the boundary begins to creep slowly southward. Otherwise...expect patchy fog...stratus...and drizzle to form in the humid airmass overnight. Lows tonight within a few degrees either side of 60F...which is close to what average high temperatures should be for the date. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... On Wednesday...the front over northern Maine will sink slowly south and west with winds shifting from southwest to northeast with its passage along with a steep nose dive in temperatures. The southwest flow ahead of the boundary will warm temperatures into the 70s and lower 80s over much of the area. Cooler post frontal temperatures...clouds and showers will spread from northeast to southwest with much of New Hampshire and extreme southwest escaping the colder air until Wednesday evening. Wednesday night the backdoor front continues to march south and west with the remainder of the forecast area seeing tumbling temperatures along with clouds and showers following its passage. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Again the main focus of the extended is with the remnants of Hurricane Michael as it moves NEwd thru the Mid Atlantic and out to sea. The expectation continues for tropical moisture to be drawn Nwd into the approaching frontal boundary. With a PWAT air mass in excess of 3 standard deviations moving in...heavy rainfall will continue to be the greatest potential threat. At this time...model guidance has shifted the approaching jet streak a little farther SW...along with the strongest S/WV ridging remaining farther SW too. So that suggests that any predecessor rain event will be SW of the forecast area as well. That being said...the low level theta-e axis does eventually move thru the area...and at least for a brief time some heavy rain would still be possible along that boundary. So again I have not put any heavy rain wording in the forecast grids because of the uncertainty...but I will continue to mention it here and the HWO. Beyond the rainfall Thu...the trend in modeling is for mean trofing to establish itself over the Ern CONUS. While the first couple of shots of colder air look to target the center of the country...gradually that cooler air will build E. At this time there are no signs of a highly anomalous cool down...but more seasonable and typical of fall. That does mean that the higher peaks have some of the white stuff in the forecast as periodic S/WV trofs rotate thru. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through Wednesday night/...VFR with areas of MVFR and lcl IFR dvlpg aft 04z in sct -shra, and patchy drizzle and fog. Improving to VFR throughout aft 13z Wed with MVFR spreading south and west across much of Maine and northern New Hampshire aft 16z in cigs and shra with a backdoor cold front. MVFR with areas of IFR for the entire area Wed night in cigs, shra, and areas of drizzle and fog. Long Term...Likely to see areas of IFR or lower as tropical moisture associated with Michael move thru the region Thu. A cold front will cross the area Thu night into Fri...and allow high pressure to build in. Several days of VFR follow...with LIFR valley fog probable at night. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Wednesday night/...Lingering SCA seas over eastern two marine zones tonight with a few gusts to near 25 kt. On Wednesday...backdoor front will drop south and west across the waters with strengthening NE flow behind it likely bringing SCA conditions for the outer waters late Wed and Wed night. Long Term...As remnants of Michael move E ushered out to sea by a cold front...winds will turn offshore. Gusts around 25 kts are possible thru the weekend. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152. && $$ NEAR TERM...Schwibs SHORT TERM...Schwibs LONG TERM...Legro