825 FXUS63 KGRB 102023 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 323 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The significant and steadier rains have already ended over much of the Flood Watch area, so the watch will be cancelled. A large area of showers associated with a sharp upper trof, RRQ of an upper jet and deep moisture convergence along and ahead of a cold front covered northeast and east central WI this afternoon. A dry slot was already moving into the southwest part of the forecast area, so the precipitation is expected to end a little quicker than previously thought. Some weak convection was developing along the cold front and moving into central WI. Although no lightning has been observed so far, there is enough instability (CAPE 200-600 J/KG) to warrant a continued mention of a few storms during the late afternoon and early evening. Wrap-around precipitation will impact our northwest counties overnight, with some minor lake effect lingering over Vilas county through much of the day on Thursday. Falling temperatures will bring a chance of mixed rain and snow to far northern WI late tonight into Thursday, though little or no accumulation is expected. Strong gusty southwest to west winds will develop as the low pressure system lifts north of the region this evening. The winds will become west-northwest on Thursday. Gusts to 30 to 35 mph are likely for inland locations, with gusts to near gale force expected on the bay and lake. Will stick with a high-end Small Craft Advisory for now. Temperatures will take a nose dive tonight, with readings falling into the middle 30s to lower 40s. On Thursday temperatures will remain nearly steady or rise only a couple degrees. .LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Expect mainly northwest mid level flow across the region through the end of the forecast period as a trough over the eastern Pacific moves onshore and continues eastward. Expect high temperatures to be much colder than normal, mainly in the upper 30s and 40s. Lows will be mostly in the 20s and 30s. Cyclonic flow and an approaching mid level trough will bring the possibility of some light precipitation across far north-central Wisconsin on Thursday night. Surface high pressure should bring a period of dry weather for Friday through Saturday morning. An approaching surface system and mid level short wave will bring a chance for showers to mainly north-central Wisconsin Saturday afternoon. Some light rain and/or light snow is possible across far north-central Wisconsin again Sunday into Monday morning, associated with another short wave and surface cyclonic flow behind the departing system. The next mid level trough and surface low will bring a chance for showers Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Rain or snow showers is possible again in far north-central Wisconsin on Wednesday. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 A large area of showers will gradually shift east across the region during the afternoon, and exit far northeast WI by early evening. A warm front has moved into the far south part of the forecast area, but temporary improvements in flight conditions have been offset by reduced cigs/vsbys in moderate rain. The bottom line is that most of the region will see MVFR/IFR conditions tonight, with some LIFR ceilings at times in northern WI this afternoon anf evening. Widespread MVFR ceilings are anticipated on Thursday morning. Winds will become gusty out of the southwest and west tonight into Thursday as colder air filters into the area and the pressure gradient tightens. Gusts to around 30 kts are expected during that time period. There could be a mix of rain/snow showers over the far north late tonight into Thursday morning, but plan to keep any mention of snow out of the RHI TAF site for now. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....Kieckbusch LONG TERM......MG AVIATION.......Kieckbusch