358 FXUS63 KGLD 110935 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 335 AM MDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 226 AM MDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Across the Tri State region this morning...cold airmass in place as a strong surface ridge crests over the northern/central Plains. Winds are light and with mainly clear skies...temperatures are currently ranging from the upper 20s into the mid 30s. Coldest areas along and north of I-70. Some low clouds are trying to push slowly eastward from NE Colorado and may aid in keeping temps from falling show this veil push into NW Kansas by morning. With the current temperature spread over the area...continue to have Hard Freeze/Freeze Warnings and should remain intact until after sunrise into the mid morning hours. Going into today though...surface ridge will continue to slide east thru the morning hrs...along with upper flow becoming west- southwesterly thru the day. This will allow for a brief warmup on WAA from the southerly surface winds and the downslope upper flow. There are model differences as to the extent of the warmer air into the region today. NAM model guidance has been running best over the past couple days...so will go with daytime highs only in the lower to mid 40s. Shortwave trough shifting eastward off the Rockies later this afternoon on into the evening hours will begin to trigger some light rain over NE Colorado...overspreading the remainder of the CWA going into tonight...tapering from west to east by 12z Friday. Increased cloud cover thru the day into the evening hours should help to insulate the area off of daytime highs...and with a southerly surface wind remaining at least into the evening before turning NW on the backside of the exiting system...temps should be warm enough for all light rain...albeit a cold one as overnight lows will drop into 30s. Coldest spots will occur in NW areas. A few spots could drop to near freezing...but looks to occur after 06z Friday and after precip as shunted eastward...so will keep out mention of and snow at this time. This drop to near freezing could pose an issue to area roadways. There will be a few lingering showers in far eastern locales for a few hours Friday morning...but high pressure will build into the region...allowing for warming and dry conditions to last from Friday afternoon thru 00z Sunday. With surface ridging in place during this time...looking for daytime highs to reach into the 50s for both Friday/Saturday...off of overnight lows Frday night in the mid to upper 30s. Southerly flow over the area will aid in keeping these temps near normal. Going into Saturday night though...a stronger shortwave dives into the central Rockies along with a strong surface ridge nosing south into the central Plains along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. The increased easterly surface flow along with the presence of the upper trough...will trigger precipitation. Highest pops will occur over western zones due to the expected easterly upslope/orographic flow. Temps slow to drop overnight so a rain to all snow transitions will occur. When all areas get cold for all light snow...a trace east thru nearly 2 inches in the far west(especially NE Colorado) is possible. Overnight lows will bottom out in the 20s along and west of Hwy 27...and 30-35F east of there. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Morning through Thursday) Issued at 333 AM MDT Thu Oct 11 2018 The forecast period will be characterized by frigid temperatures Sunday post FROPA Saturday evening and then followed by a warming trend into late next week. Models have maintained passage to occur by 18Z Saturday and for the robust CAA behind the front to plummet high temperatures into the 30s across the entire area and low temperatures in the 20s. The extensive cloud cover associated with the front will prevent traditional diurnal trends from taking place and moderate temperatures with a very low diurnal range. Snow showers are expected to accompany the front with high rH values condensing into precipitation. Snow is the most likely of all precip to form under the given conditions. As wind direction becomes more WNW by Monday morning, this places the Tri-State area under prime conditions for upslope warming which aids in the upcoming warming trend to follow, clearing out sky cover and bringing max temperatures back into the upper 40s for Monday, upper 50s for Tuesday and into the low 60s by Thursday. The roughly 10 degree jump between Monday and Tuesday may be an overestimation by the Superblend, but will largely depend on how quickly skies clear out. There exists quite a bit of model discrepancy with regard to how long the cloud cover will persist post Fropa. Once conditions begin to improve and the warming trend gets underway, frost is possible for several mornings thereafter with lows barely surpassing freezing by Wednesday. Frost was emitted from the grids at this time because of the lack of significant impact associated with potential morning frost considering the first hard freeze of the season will have already occurred. No significant accumulation is expected with the snow showers forecasted for Sunday, with totals barely exceeding half of an inch. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1142 PM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. The clearing over KMCK and KGLD should begin to shift east during the overnight hours. KITR has MVFR ceiling, which should move over KGLD during the tempo timeframe. Confidence is moderate for the MVFR timing at KGLD. Once KGLD goes down it should remain at MVFR through the rest of the TAF. KMCK should remain VFR until late Thursday evening. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning for KSZ001>004-013>016. Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning for KSZ027>029-041-042. CO...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for COZ090-091. Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for COZ092. NE...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...SANDERSON AVIATION...JTL