515 FXUS63 KGLD 110826 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 226 AM MDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 226 AM MDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Across the Tri State region this morning...cold airmass in place as a strong surface ridge crests over the northern/central Plains. Winds are light and with mainly clear skies...temperatures are currently ranging from the upper 20s into the mid 30s. Coldest areas along and north of I-70. Some low clouds are trying to push slowly eastward from NE Colorado and may aid in keeping temps from falling show this veil push into NW Kansas by morning. With the current temperature spread over the area...continue to have Hard Freeze/Freeze Warnings and should remain intact until after sunrise into the mid morning hours. Going into today though...surface ridge will continue to slide east thru the morning hrs...along with upper flow becoming west- southwesterly thru the day. This will allow for a brief warmup on WAA from the southerly surface winds and the downslope upper flow. There are model differences as to the extent of the warmer air into the region today. NAM model guidance has been running best over the past couple days...so will go with daytime highs only in the lower to mid 40s. Shortwave trough shifting eastward off the Rockies later this afternoon on into the evening hours will begin to trigger some light rain over NE Colorado...overspreading the remainder of the CWA going into tonight...tapering from west to east by 12z Friday. Increased cloud cover thru the day into the evening hours should help to insulate the area off of daytime highs...and with a southerly surface wind remaining at least into the evening before turning NW on the backside of the exiting system...temps should be warm enough for all light rain...albeit a cold one as overnight lows will drop into 30s. Coldest spots will occur in NW areas. A few spots could drop to near freezing...but looks to occur after 06z Friday and after precip as shunted eastward...so will keep out mention of and snow at this time. This drop to near freezing could pose an issue to area roadways. There will be a few lingering showers in far eastern locales for a few hours Friday morning...but high pressure will build into the region...allowing for warming and dry conditions to last from Friday afternoon thru 00z Sunday. With surface ridging in place during this time...looking for daytime highs to reach into the 50s for both Friday/Saturday...off of overnight lows Fiday night in the mid to upper 30s. Southerly flow over the area will aid in keeping these temps near normal. Going into Saturday night though...a stronger shortwave dives into the central Rockies along with a strong surface ridge nosing south into the central Plains along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. The increased easterly surface flow along with the presence of the upper trough...will trigger precipitation. Highest pops will occur over western zones due to the expected easterly upslope/orographic flow. Temps slow to drop overnight so a rain to all snow transitions will occur. When all areas get cold for all light snow...a trace east thru nearly 2 inches in the far west(especially NE Colorado) is possible. Overnight lows will bottom out in the 20s along and west of Hwy 27...and 30-35F east of there. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1250 PM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Friday...rain showers continue in the morning generally east of the CO/KS border then exit the area by noon as Thursdays system quickly moves east. Clouds will also quickly decrease from west to east. Afternoon temperatures look to warm into the mid to upper 50s. For the overnight hours models have now backed off on precipitation chances with a minor weather disturbance who's shallow moisture moves into the area south of the interstate from the southwest. Will continue to monitor and a few light rain showers are possible. Low temperatures look to range from the low to mid 30s in far eastern Colorado and mid to upper 30s elsewhere. Saturday...Friday nights weather disturbance continues to move east- northeast through the morning with very small pops across the far south and southeast for a few rain showers. Dry conditions expected during the afternoon. High temperatures generally in the mid to upper 50s. For Saturday night a cold front moves through with breezy north to northeast winds. Low temperatures fall into the mid 20s west and low 30s east. A strong weather disturbance with good moisture in the 850-500mb layer moves through from the northwest bringing a good chance of rain quickly changing over to snow after midnight. Light snow accumulations are currently expected. Sunday...snow is expected for nearly the entire area (exception being northeast corner) in the morning with a possible mix with rain in the afternoon as surface temperatures warming above freezing. I continue to remain pessimistic with the mix to rain given 850mb temperatures below zero. Either way light accumulations of snow expected in the morning with high temperatures generally in the 30s to perhaps 40 degrees. Dry weather expected during the night with lows in the low to mid 20s. Monday...we should see lots of sunshine with afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Some mid and/or high clouds are possible during the night approaching from the north. Low temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. Tuesday...dry weather is expected with a sunny to mostly sunny sky. 850mb temperatures warm a few degrees supporting highs in the mid to upper 50s. Low temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Wednesday...dry with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Forecast area under elongated upper ridging in between low pressure over the northeast and desert southwest. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1142 PM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. The clearing over KMCK and KGLD should begin to shift east during the overnight hours. KITR has MVFR ceiling, which should move over KGLD during the tempo timeframe. Confidence is moderate for the MVFR timing at KGLD. Once KGLD goes down it should remain at MVFR through the rest of the TAF. KMCK should remain VFR until late Thursday evening. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning for KSZ001>004-013>016. Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning for KSZ027>029-041-042. CO...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for COZ090-091. Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for COZ092. NE...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...JTL