183 FXUS63 KGLD 102324 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 524 PM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 228 PM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Had to lower daily highs today as we kept cooler due to dense cloud cover. Also, increased pops in the near term period to cover some light snow showers currently moving across our Colorado counties. These snow showers are expected to be brief and short lived, and may impact Kansas counties along the Colorado border. Cold daily high temperatures will be in the 40s today and tomorrow with overnight lows tonight in the mid 20s to lower 30s and tomorrow night's lows warming to the low to mid 30s. As a result, a Hard Freeze Warning and Freeze warning for widespread frost is expected tonight and last through the early mid-afternoon tomorrow. A frost advisory could be issued tomorrow night for counties that do not hit Hard Freeze criteria tonight. Thursday, a shortwave trough will be impacting the area. At this time, expecting mostly rain, although it is possible we may see some snow showers. It all depends again, on how much cloud cover hangs around tomorrow afternoon and how much we can heat up. Higher confidence it'll be a rain event, so removed snow at this time. Residents impacted by showers can expect rainfall totals up to half an inch, with some localized areas receiving more. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1250 PM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Friday...rain showers continue in the morning generally east of the CO/KS border then exit the area by noon as Thursdays system quickly moves east. Clouds will also quickly decrease from west to east. Afternoon temperatures look to warm into the mid to upper 50s. For the overnight hours models have now backed off on precipitation chances with a minor weather disturbance who's shallow moisture moves into the area south of the interstate from the southwest. Will continue to monitor and a few light rain showers are possible. Low temperatures look to range from the low to mid 30s in far eastern Colorado and mid to upper 30s elsewhere. Saturday...Friday nights weather disturbance continues to move east- northeast through the morning with very small pops across the far south and southeast for a few rain showers. Dry conditions expected during the afternoon. High temperatures generally in the mid to upper 50s. For Saturday night a cold front moves through with breezy north to northeast winds. Low temperatures fall into the mid 20s west and low 30s east. A strong weather disturbance with good moisture in the 850-500mb layer moves through from the northwest bringing a good chance of rain quickly changing over to snow after midnight. Light snow accumulations are currently expected. Sunday...snow is expected for nearly the entire area (exception being northeast corner) in the morning with a possible mix with rain in the afternoon as surface temperatures warming above freezing. I continue to remain pessimistic with the mix to rain given 850mb temperatures below zero. Either way light accumulations of snow expected in the morning with high temperatures generally in the 30s to perhaps 40 degrees. Dry weather expected during the night with lows in the low to mid 20s. Monday...we should see lots of sunshine with afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Some mid and/or high clouds are possible during the night approaching from the north. Low temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. Tuesday...dry weather is expected with a sunny to mostly sunny sky. 850mb temperatures warm a few degrees supporting highs in the mid to upper 50s. Low temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Wednesday...dry with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Forecast area under elongated upper ridging in between low pressure over the northeast and desert southwest. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 520 PM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 MVFR to VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. KMCK should remain VFR for the TAF. KGLD will improve to VFR for a few hours then fall back to MVFR as the lower ceilings move in from the southwest. Despite a minority of the data supporting the much earlier timing of the MVFR ceiling at KGLD, confidence of the timing of MVFR for KGLD is on the high side due to the models that have the best handle on the current ceiling showing the much earlier arrival of MVFR. Once the MVFR ceiling arrives it should persist through the rest of the TAF period for KGLD. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Hard Freeze Warning from 11 PM MDT /midnight CDT/ this evening to 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Thursday for KSZ001>004-013>016. Freeze Warning from 11 PM MDT /midnight CDT/ this evening to 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Thursday for KSZ027>029-041-042. CO...Hard Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Thursday for COZ090-091. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Thursday for COZ092. NE...Hard Freeze Warning from 11 PM MDT /midnight CDT/ this evening to 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Thursday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...EV LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...JTL