461 FXUS63 KGLD 101850 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1250 PM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night) Issued at 429 AM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Forecast concerns will be how cold it gets tonight, and chances of precipitation through the period. Satellite showing a highly amplified pattern from the Pacific into the western Atlantic. Slow moving trough currently is near the four corners region. Today/tonight...Am letting the current freeze warning and frost advisory continue but conditions are only marginal at this time. Not confident on the high temperature forecast. I do not think cloud cover is going to completely erode. A left front quadrant of the jet starts impacting my area late this morning into the afternoon hours. At the very least this should thicken up cloud cover. That combined with cold advection should keep temperatures from warming up too much. I did warm high temperatures but kept it below guidance. Jet axis moves across the area with the right rear quadrant affecting the northern portion of my area during the evening and early portion of the overnight hours. Also a rather strong and compact shortwave trough moves through the same area during the evening hours. There is a lot cold air aloft, a strong baroclinic zone and associated frontogenesis with this wave. Theta-e lapse are near/slightly above zero. Look to have a quick shot of light snow and/or flurries. For tonight, after that the clouds clear out as the surface ridge noses into the northeast two thirds of the area. There appears to be some cloud cover, probably some stratus as the day shift mentioned in my southern and western fringes. However vast majority of the area should have little cloud cover and little to no wind. Based on the above and collaboration, lowered the low temperatures into the mid and upper 20s across most of the area. As a result of the above and collaboration, I have issued a Hard Freeze Warning form my northern 3 tiers of counties. Since I am unsure about the cloud cover in my south, I have those six counties in a Hard Freeze Watch. Thursday/Thursday night...Freeze highlights continue through 16z. Will have a cold start to the day. Also cloud cover will increase at multiple levels through the day with light upslope winds in place. This is a recipe for not warming up much. So I lowered the high temperatures for most of the area. Rather strong shortwave trough starts affecting the western portion of the area later in the afternoon. The main affects of this shortwave trough and jet lift from a strong southern jet will be felt during the night. The high pops the forecast builder looks reasonable and kept or slightly adjusted up. Friday/Friday night...Above mentioned lift and precipitation affect the area during the morning. Dry conditions are expected in the afternoon. High temperatures for the day look fine at this time. However, am a little concerned that some low level cloud cover could make things cooler in the east. The next shortwave trough moves in during the later half of the night and affects the southern portion of the area. The pops the forecast builder gave me looks reasonable. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1250 PM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Friday...rain showers continue in the morning generally east of the CO/KS border then exit the area by noon as Thursdays system quickly moves east. Clouds will also quickly decrease from west to east. Afternoon temperatures look to warm into the mid to upper 50s. For the overnight hours models have now backed off on precipitation chances with a minor weather disturbance whos shallow moisture moves into the area south of the interstate from the southwest. Will continue to monitor and a few light rain showers are possible. Low temperatures look to range from the low to mid 30s in far eastern Colorado and mid to upper 30s elsewhere. Saturday...Friday nights weather disturbance continues to move east- northeast through the morning with very small pops across the far south and southeast for a few rain showers. Dry conditions expected during the afternoon. High temperatures generally in the mid to upper 50s. For Saturday night a cold front moves through with breezy north to northeast winds. Low temperatures fall into the mid 20s west and low 30s east. A strong weather disturbance with good moisture in the 850-500mb layer moves through from the northwest bringing a good chance of rain quickly changing over to snow after midnight. Light snow accumulations are currently expected. Sunday...snow is expected for nearly the entire area (exception being northeast corner) in the morning with a possible mix with rain in the afternoon as surface temperatures warming above freezing. I continue to remain pessimistic with the mix to rain given 850mb temperatures below zero. Either way light accumulations of snow expected in the morning with high temperatures generally in the 30s to perhaps 40 degrees. Dry weather expected during the night with lows in the low to mid 20s. Monday...we should see lots of sunshine with afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Some mid and/or high clouds are possible during the night approaching from the north. Low temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. Tuesday...dry weather is expected with a sunny to mostly sunny sky. 850mb temperatures warm a few degrees supporting highs in the mid to upper 50s. Low temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Wednesday...dry with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Forecast area under elongated upper ridging in between low pressure over the northeast and desert southwest. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1225 PM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Some lingering sub-vfr decks have hung around the terminals today. Expecting ceilings to rise and improve later this afternoon giving prevailing VFR throughout the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will become light and variable tomorrow morning, but not forecasting fog at the terminals at this time. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Hard Freeze Warning from 11 PM MDT /midnight CDT/ this evening to 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Thursday for KSZ001>004-013>016. Hard Freeze Watch from 11 PM MDT /midnight CDT/ this evening through Thursday morning for KSZ027>029-041-042. CO...Hard Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Thursday for COZ090-091. Hard Freeze Watch from 11 PM MDT this evening through Thursday morning for COZ092. NE...Hard Freeze Warning from 11 PM MDT /midnight CDT/ this evening to 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Thursday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...EV