842 FXUS63 KGLD 100541 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1141 PM MDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 758 PM MDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Precipitation has shifted northeast as was expected, however it has been more to the east than northeast. Have increased precipitation chances as a result over the southern part of the forecast area. Also looks like the precipitation has slowed down its eastward progression. May need to consider increasing snowfall amounts as a result. Regarding snowfall amounts, the western edge of Kit Carson and Cheyenne Counties have snowfall reports of 6" or so, with 2" in Burlington and northwest of St. Francis. With the majority of the snow east of CO, and roads remaining snow free so far as shown by webcams, do not plan on issuing any hazard at this time due to the snow. Icy roads will be the main impact as the temperature falls tonight. UPDATE Issued at 500 PM MDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Main change to the forecast was to increase precipitation chances in the west under the band of snow and reduce them in the east where lift is lacking. Frontogenesis in the 700-500mb layer over East Central Colorado seems to be responsible for the band of snow there. Am expecting the frontogenesis to shift northeast somewhat quickly over the next few hours, taking the band of snow with it. Snowfall will be highest over East Central Colorado where the snow band has lingered the longest. May see amounts approach 3 inches on elevated or grassy surfaces. So far none has accumulated on the highways. The frontogenesis will exit the forecast area before midnight, bringing the snow to and end by or not long after midnight. Meanwhile the small area of higher reflectivity over the now central part of the forecast area may maintain its intensity due to it riding the gradient of lower stability as it moves north. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Inverted trough will lift to the northeast and move out of our area overnight tonight. This will allow us to clear out and help our temperatures to drop even further. Issued a Freeze Warning tonight as a result for counties along and west of Highway 25. For all counties east of Highway 25, issued a Frost Advisory. Confidence on the Freeze Warning is high, while the confidence of the Frost Advisory is medium. Depending on cloud cover tonight, and gusty northwest winds it may prevent widespread frost from developing. Dryer conditions expected on Wednesday, and with clearing skies and reduced winds, confident we will drop further and have to issue additional frost/freeze headlines. Prevented doing so this forecast period to prevent confusion. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Thursday...southeast surface winds return during the day and with it the likelihood of extensive low cloudiness...best chance across the western 1/2 of the area. Models have backed off on precipitation but I couldnt totally rule out a few flurries early in the morning and some sprinkles a little later as temperatures warm above freezing. High temperatures will be challenging and certainly subject to change, especially across the western 1/2 of the area where low clouds may prevent much in the way of warming. Have tweaked highs down a degree or two across the west with upper 30s to low 40s while across the east we should see mid 40s to perhaps 50 degrees. For the overnight hours an upper level trough with plenty of low and mid level moisture moves across the area. The left front quad of a 120+kt upper jet moves in from the southwest for much of the night aiding in lift and looks to support the rather high precipitation chances. With low temperatures currently forecast to drop into the 33 to 38 degree range precipitation type should be mainly rain. 850mb temperatures are also a few degrees above zero so that should help prevent any changeover despite the surface temperatures. Friday...predominately liquid precipitation in the morning quickly ends by noon as Thursdays system quickly moves east-southeast. Clouds will also decrease slowly from west to east. Afternoon temperatures look to warm into the low to mid 50s. Nudged highs up a few degrees across the western 1/2 of the area where more sunshine expected and blend of better performing bias corrected grids match 850mb temperatures. For the overnight hours models are pretty excited about a weather disturbance moving in from the south- southwest after midnight with moisture generally below 700mb. With low temperatures currently forecast to be in the mid 30s to low 40s primary precipitation type will be light rain showers. Saturday...Friday nights weather disturbance continues to move northeast through the morning and afternoon with best chance of precipitation across the far northeast through southern parts of the area. Surface and 850mb temperatures are plenty warm so rain will be the precipitation type. High temperatures generally in the mid to upper 50s. For Saturday night a cold front moves through with breezy north winds. Low temperatures fall into the mid 20s west and low 30s east. A strong weather disturbance with good moisture in the 850- 500mb layer moves through from the northwest bringing a good chance of rain quickly changing over to snow after midnight. Light snow accumulations are currently expected generally along and west of the CO/KS border. Sunday...snow is expected for the entire area in the morning with a changeover to rain in the afternoon as current models show surface temperatures warming above freezing. I do have some concern with this given GFS/ECMWF 850mb temperatures a few degrees above zero in the afternoon and model forecasts of cloud cover and precipitation ongoing. If this verifies the change over to rain may take longer. Additional light snowfall accumulations are expected. For Sunday night models are currently in good agreement pushing precipitation out of the area shortly after sunset with dry conditions after midnight. Low temperatures look to reach the low to mid 20s which would produce a hard freeze across the entire area. Monday...we should see lots of sunshine with afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Some mid and/or high clouds are possible during the night approaching from the north. Low temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. Tuesday... dry weather is expected with a sunny to mostly sunny sky. 850mb temperatures warm a few degrees supporting highs in the mid to upper 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1138 PM MDT Tue Oct 9 2018 MVFR to VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Both sites should be MVFR through the rest of the night as the precipitation exits to the northeast. Ceilings may improve to VFR faster than what is currently forecast, but hopefully that won't be until after 12z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Wednesday for KSZ001- 002-013-014-027-028-041-042. Frost Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for KSZ003-004-015- 016-029. CO...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Wednesday for NEZ079- 080. Frost Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for NEZ081. && $$ UPDATE...JTL SHORT TERM...EV LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...JTL