249 FXUS63 KGLD 091920 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 120 PM MDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 413 AM MDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Forecast concerns will be precipitation chances, phase, and how cold does it get the next few nights. Satellite showing an amplified pattern from the Pacific into the western Atlantic. Slow moving trough currently is near the four corners region. Deep moisture is streaming north ahead of this system. At jet level...The Canadian and the Gfs were doing a little better on the jet segment in our area. All the models started out fine at mid levels. Today/tonight...Right rear quadrant will start over the far west in the morning and move west to east across the area through the day. It looks to be east of the area by early evening. Mid/upper trough is going to start lifting to the northeast. System comes out in a negatively tilted fashion with strong frontogenesis/deformation involved. This is the result of the system closing off at 700 mb as it moves across the area. Theta-e lapse rates are adequate but not negative. There may be a little elevated Cape but not a lot. Models showing a near certainty for rainfall, especially along and definitely east of the Colorado border. The highest chances look to be through the afternoon before slowly decreasing beginning late in the afternoon and finally ending by late in the evening. In the wrap around area/northwest portion of our area, temperatures will be cold enough to mix with or change to snow later this afternoon into this evening. Rates do not look that high due a stable air mass. Snowfall amounts up to an inch are expected along and west of a line from Cheyenne Wells to Saint Francis to Haigler. Yuma county looks to have the best chance for accumulating snow. Models showing a subsident and drier air mass after the precipitation ends. Question will be how much the cloud cover hangs on. Mid and upper level cloud cover hangs around the longest in the northern portion. Models want to hold on to the low level moisture through the next day across the entire area. Am wondering how true that will be due to the downward motion and downslope winds that come in after the precipitation ends. Sometimes the models overdo the lingering moisture. So because of that and collaboration, am going to go colder than what was in there. That means lows ranging from the upper 20s in eastern Colorado to the middle 30s in north central Kansas. As a result have issued a freeze watch for the western half of the area from midnight mdt tonight to 10 am mdt Wednesday morning. Depending on the cloud cover, the freezing or lower temperatures may need to be lowered and/or expanded. Wednesday/Wednesday night...Left front quadrant moves across the area during the day and then transitions to the right rear quadrant during the night. During the afternoon and evening, shortwave trough/strong mid level baroclinic zone, in sharply cyclonic flow aloft moves across. At this time, the blend gave me some low chance pops in the far northwest and that looks reasonable. Cloud cover looks to increase some during the day. Models are similar in keeping much below normal temperatures and see no reason to deviate from what the builder gave me. For the night, am a little more confident of having less cloud cover but model output is still keeping some cloud cover around which plants a slight doubt in my mind. Winds will also be much lighter as well. Builder temperatures are colder than what I have in there for tonight. Will have to wait and see how tonight goes but there is a growing potential for a freeze to hard freeze for much if not the entire area. Thursday/Thursday night...Temperatures will continue to be cold and have no reason to doubt what the builder gave me. What is the big question is the chance of precipitation later in the day and especially during the night. Models continue to show a rather strong mid level shortwave moving through, mainly during the night. There appears to be a rather strong baroclinic zone/lots of cold air aloft associated with this system. A slug of mid level moisture moves across during the same time. Again theta-e lapse rates are okay, but not negative. Also there is a hint of elevated instability. For such a fast moving but potent wave the forecaster builder still remains rather robust on its pops. Right now the pops appear to be fine but may be a little overdone. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Thursday...southeast surface winds return during the day and with it the likelihood of extensive low cloudiness...best chance across the western 1/2 of the area. Models have backed off on precipitation but I couldnt totally rule out a few flurries early in the morning and some sprinkles a little later as temperatures warm above freezing. High temperatures will be challenging and certainly subject to change, especially across the western 1/2 of the area where low clouds may prevent much in the way of warming. Have tweaked highs down a degree or two across the west with upper 30s to low 40s while across the east we should see mid 40s to perhaps 50 degrees. For the overnight hours an upper level trough with plenty of low and mid level moisture moves across the area. The left front quad of a 120+kt upper jet moves in from the southwest for much of the night aiding in lift and looks to support the rather high precipitation chances. With low temperatures currently forecast to drop into the 33 to 38 degree range precipitation type should be mainly rain. 850mb temperatures are also a few degrees above zero so that should help prevent any changeover despite the surface temperatures. Friday...predominately liquid precipitation in the morning quickly ends by noon as Thursdays system quickly moves east-southeast. Clouds will also decrease slowly from west to east. Afternoon temperatures look to warm into the low to mid 50s. Nudged highs up a few degrees across the western 1/2 of the area where more sunshine expected and blend of better performing bias corrected grids match 850mb temperatures. For the overnight hours models are pretty excited about a weather disturbance moving in from the south- southwest after midnight with moisture generally below 700mb. With low temperatures currently forecast to be in the mid 30s to low 40s primary precipitation type will be light rain showers. Saturday...Friday nights weather disturbance continues to move northeast through the morning and afternoon with best chance of precipitation across the far northeast through southern parts of the area. Surface and 850mb temperatures are plenty warm so rain will be the precipitation type. High temperatures generally in the mid to upper 50s. For Saturday night a cold front moves through with breezy north winds. Low temperatures fall into the mid 20s west and low 30s east. A strong weather disturbance with good moisture in the 850- 500mb layer moves through from the northwest bringing a good chance of rain quickly changing over to snow after midnight. Light snow accumulations are currently expected generally along and west of the CO/KS border. Sunday...snow is expected for the entire area in the morning with a changeover to rain in the afternoon as current models show surface temperatures warming above freezing. I do have some concern with this given GFS/ECMWF 850mb temperatures a few degrees above zero in the afternoon and model forecasts of cloud cover and precipitation ongoing. If this verifies the change over to rain may take longer. Additional light snowfall accumulations are expected. For Sunday night models are currently in good agreement pushing precipitation out of the area shortly after sunset with dry conditions after midnight. Low temperatures look to reach the low to mid 20s which would produce a hard freeze across the entire area. Monday...we should see lots of sunshine with afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Some mid and/or high clouds are possible during the night approaching from the north. Low temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. Tuesday... dry weather is expected with a sunny to mostly sunny sky. 850mb temperatures warm a few degrees supporting highs in the mid to upper 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 533 AM MDT Tue Oct 9 2018 For Kgld, ifr with occasional lifr conditions are expected through 09z. At that time conditions should become mvfr. North winds of 16 to 20 knots with gusts of 24 to 28 knots are expected until 01z. After that north winds near 12 knots will shift to the northwest at the same speed. For Kmck, north winds near 13 knots and barely mvfr conditions are expected until 16z. From 16z to 03z ifr conditions along with north winds near 18 knots and gusts to 26 knots are expected. From 03z to 05z ifr conditions and north winds near 12 knots with transition to mvfr conditions and northwest winds near 12 knots after 05z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Wednesday for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041- 042. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ003-004- 015-016-029. CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ090>092. NE...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Wednesday for NEZ079-080. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ081. && $$ SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...BULLER