437 FXUS63 KGID 102328 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 628 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 401 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Overall, it's been a quiet (and finally dry!) but breezy day across the CWA. In the upper levels, flow is generally zonal, as we sit in between the departing disturbance which helped drive the wet past few days...and another disturbance over the Central Rockies. At the surface, low pressure sits over the MN/WI border, with the main frontal boundary draped south into TX. A higher pressure ridge axis noses south through the High Plains into western KS/OK. The tightened pressure gradient across the region has made for gusty northwesterly winds, even an occasional gust near/over 30 MPH. The low level stratus has been gradually breaking up through the day, just enough to tease us with peeks of sun but not totally clear off. No big surprises with temperatures today, 3 PM obs are mainly in the mid 40s. Looking to tonight/tomorrow, the forecast remains a dry one, though there is a little uncertainty with that as we get into late tomorrow afternoon. The main concern is temperatures tonight and the frost/freeze threat. Made no changes to the inherited Freeze Warning, and converted the watch over to a Freeze Warning for Polk/York and a Frost Adv for the rest. It wasn't a clean cut decision , converted the northern portions where it looks like they may hold onto winds not favorable for frost development, but how quickly clouds diminish is a concern to. In the Frost Adv areas, winds are lighter, but there is at least a bit more model support that temps may stay above the freezing mark. It'll be something for the evening crew to monitor. As we get into tomorrow, should finally see more in the way of sun, at least through the first half of the day, but models do show some mid- upper level clouds starting to work their way back in from the west. These clouds are associated with the next upper level system that will be approaching the area. While the forecast was kept dry, there are a couple models that suggest some light precip could start creeping its way into far western areas between 21-00Z. Temperature-wise, didn't make any notable changes to forecast highs, which are in the upper 40s to lower 50s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 401 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 As we get into tomorrow night and Friday, the main concern lies with increasing precipitation chances. For at least a few days now, models have been in pretty good agreement showing a shortwave trough axis moving out of the Northern Rockies and swinging through the region. At this point, model timing shows the best chances coming after midnight tomorrow night, continuing through roughly midday Friday. There is still the potential for at least a mix of ra/sn, if not straight snow...but at this point this looks like it'd be mainly confined to the north-northwest quarter or so of the CWA...with rain to the south. No big changes with highs for Friday, mainly mid 40s/low 50s. Looking ahead to the upcoming weekend, a chance for a little bump up in temperatures, and then it's gone. The forecast looks to dry out for Friday night into a good chunk of Saturday, as the area sits in between systems. Models generally agree that there will be a chance for winds to at least briefly turn to the south, ahead of the next cold front set to swing through. High temperatures on Saturday currently sit in the mid 50s. The next system and precipitation chances move through Saturday night and Sunday, with the accompanying cold front potentially holding highs on Sunday in the mid-upper 30s. At this point, it also looks Sunday night lows will also finish off any areas that won't have had a killing freeze yet. Lows are forecast CWA-wide in the lower- mid 20s. Drier, northwesterly flow looks to set up in the wake of Sunday's system, with Mon-Tues currently dry. Highs for Mon are currently in the 40s/low 50s, with mid 50s for Tues. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday) Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Low clouds linger for a few hours but should lift. There could be some MVFR ceilings with the lower clouds. The only concern is some higher clouds that are moving over the lower clouds. The clouds should clear out during the night. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM CDT Thursday for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>076-082>085. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM CDT Thursday for NEZ077-086- 087. KS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ005-006- 017. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ007-018- 019. && $$ SHORT TERM...ADP LONG TERM...ADP AVIATION...JCB