859 FXUS63 KGID 101721 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1221 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 542 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Plenty of low level stratus lingering across the local area this morning behind the departing upper level low lifting north into the Dakotas. Expect this cloud cover the linger through the day as clouds and low level moisture continue to wrap around the backside of the departing surface low. As a result...expect another cloudy and cool day across the region...with some patchy fog and drizzle to start the day in spots. Further west...there is still some light precip evident on radar...and despite very little precipitation expected...could see a stray snow shower or bit of snow mixed with rain this morning across our western fringes...so maintained this mention in the HWO. Behind the departing low...the tight pressure gradient will result in another breezy afternoon across the local area...with lighter winds not anticipated until the evening hours when a surface ridge is expected to nudge in from the northwest. This ridge...accompanied by at least partially clearing skies...sets the stage for an unseasonably cold night across the local area...with widespread frost and freezing temperature potential. Because guidance has been trending down for temps tonight the past few days...confidence in the sub-freezing temps and frost formation is on the higher side...and opted to convert the previous freeze watch to a warning with the remaining areas along our eastern fringes now in a freeze watch...as temperatures will be more questionable across this area due to additional lingering cloud cover and slightly more elevated winds away from the center of the surface ridge. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 542 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Below normal temps with multiple chances for precipitation are expected through the extended periods. Overall...a fairly progressive west northwesterly flow pattern is anticipated through early next week as the northerly jet maintains a cool airmass across the local area and an upper level low cuts off over southern California. This will result in several shots of cooler air from time to time along with some chances for precipitation. At the moment...temps at 850mb are very marginal to support snow with the first system Thursday night into Friday...but they do support at least the mention of a rain/snow mix with no accumulation anticipated. Behind this system, a colder system could bring a better chance for some light snowfall to the area Saturday night into Sunday morning...with much colder air associated with this system more conducive to snow. While the focus of this system will be across the southern half of our forecast area...there is at least a chance for some light snowfall to start the day Sunday for just about everyone along with morning temps potentially in the mid-20s...although these could rise a bit if more cloud cover and precipitation is indicated in future models runs. Either way...a rather raw Sunday appears in store...as afternoon temps will likely not rise out of the 30s with a brisk north wind. Thereafter...the cool and occasionally unsettled weather continues through the end of the forecast period as the overall longwave pattern does not change significantly with a cutoff low across the southwest and west northwesterly flow continuing locally. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 MVFR conditions and gusty northwesterly winds are expected to remain in place at both terminal sites for much of the afternoon, but things do look to improve. This evening through the rest of the TAF period, sky cover is expected to diminish, with VFR conditions returning. Winds will remain generally northwesterly, but speeds taper off closer to 10 MPH later this evening through midday tomorrow. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM CDT Thursday for NEZ039>041- 046>048-060>063-072>076-082>085. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for NEZ049-064-077-086-087. KS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ005-006- 017. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for KSZ007-018-019. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rossi LONG TERM...Rossi AVIATION...ADP