640 FXUS63 KGID 101107 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 607 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 542 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Plenty of low level stratus lingering across the local area this morning behind the departing upper level low lifting north into the Dakotas. Expect this cloud cover the linger through the day as clouds and low level moisture continue to wrap around the backside of the departing surface low. As a result...expect another cloudy and cool day across the region...with some patchy fog and drizzle to start the day in spots. Further west...there is still some light precip evident on radar...and despite very little precipitation expected...could see a stray snow shower or bit of snow mixed with rain this morning across our western fringes...so maintained this mention in the HWO. Behind the departing low...the tight pressure gradient will result in another breezy afternoon across the local area...with lighter winds not anticipated until the evening hours when a surface ridge is expected to nudge in from the northwest. This ridge...accompanied by at least partially clearing skies...sets the stage for an unseasonably cold night across the local area...with widespread frost and freezing temperature potential. Because guidance has been trending down for temps tonight the past few days...confidence in the sub-freezing temps and frost formation is on the higher side...and opted to convert the previous freeze watch to a warning with the remaining areas along our eastern fringes now in a freeze watch...as temperatures will be more questionable across this area due to additional lingering cloud cover and slightly more elevated winds away from the center of the surface ridge. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 542 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Below normal temps with multiple chances for precipitation are expected through the extended periods. Overall...a fairly progressive west northwesterly flow pattern is anticipated through early next week as the northerly jet maintains a cool airmass across the local area and an upper level low cuts off over southern California. This will result in several shots of cooler air from time to time along with some chances for precipitation. At the moment...temps at 850mb are very marginal to support snow with the first system Thursday night into Friday...but they do support at least the mention of a rain/snow mix with no accumulation anticipated. Behind this system, a colder system could bring a better chance for some light snowfall to the area Saturday night into Sunday morning...with much colder air associated with this system more conducive to snow. While the focus of this system will be across the southern half of our forecast area...there is at least a chance for some light snowfall to start the day Sunday for just about everyone along with morning temps potentially in the mid-20s...although these could rise a bit if more cloud cover and precipitation is indicated in future models runs. Either way...a rather raw Sunday appears in store...as afternoon temps will likely not rise out of the 30s with a brisk north wind. Thereafter...the cool and occasionally unsettled weather continues through the end of the forecast period as the overall longwave pattern does not change significantly with a cutoff low across the southwest and west northwesterly flow continuing locally. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday) Issued at 727 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 MVFR conditions will persist both terminals through at least the mid afternoon hours as clouds and moisture continue to rotate around the backside of the departing area of low pressure. With this low lifting northeastward through the day...expect the pressure gradient to eventually relax...and the gusty winds to become lighter during the late afternoon or evening hours as an area of surface high pressure settle in from the northwest. These lighter winds should be accompanied at least partially clearing skies tonight...and have VFR conditions returning to both terminals by 11/04Z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM CDT Thursday for NEZ039>041- 046>048-060>063-072>076-082>085. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for NEZ049-064-077-086-087. KS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ005-006- 017. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for KSZ007-018-019. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rossi LONG TERM...Rossi AVIATION...Pfannkuch