547 FXUS63 KGID 100325 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1025 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Have not many any "major" changes since the original afternoon forecast package, but here are our latest thoughts/recap of this evening before turning things over to overnight shift: Looking back: As discussed here exactly 24 hours ago, sure enough the Tuesday daytime period "came through" with some healthy, widespread rainfall totals of at least 1 to 2 inches across the majority of our coverage area (CWA). As a result, multi-day totals across most of our Nebraska CWA have reached 1-2", with a few places mainly near the KS border exceeding 3". Meanwhile, noticeably higher multi-day totals of 2-4", and localized 5+" fell across our KS zones, especially Rooks/Osborne/Mitchell. Current hydro headlines: At this time, a large/areal Flood Advisory blankets most of Rooks/Osborne/Mitchell counties to cover mainly localized flooding of small stream and low-lying areas, along with a few rural roads. In addition, point-specific river Flood Warnings have been issued for the South Fork Solomon near Osborne and Solomon River near Beloit. Additional hydro warnings/advisories cannot be ruled out during the next 12-24 hours, but with measurable rain pretty much over with, we are not expecting "major" flooding issues to materialize going forward. Due largely to this reason, we have cancelled the entire remaining Flood Watch in our southeast that was originally scheduled to run through 7 AM Wednesday. Looking ahead/very short term (next 9-12 hours): 1) As expected, rain has decreased in coverage and intensity as the evening wears on, with forcing focusing more to our north and west as the expansive mid-level dry slot (very evident on water vapor satellite imagery) overspreads our CWA from the south. That being said, pockets of pesky light rain and/or drizzle will likely persist much of the night especially within the northwest half of the CWA, but with additional rain amounts largely averaging less than 0.05-0.15". 2) There remains an outside chance (fairly low confidence) of a touch of grassy snow accumulation late tonight primarily within far western Dawson County, and we technically are calling for perhaps around one-half inch mainly on grassy surfaces there if conditions come together "just right". However, the VAST MAJORITY of any legitimate snow tonight will focus at least slightly west of our CWA. 3) Last but not least, despite low temps tonight expected to reach the mid-30s in most western counties, we are NOT calling for any patchy frost within our CWA given the rather healthy mitigating factors of: sustained winds remaining up in the 10-15 MPH range...cloud cover remaining very prevalent. As outlined below, tomorrow night (Wed night/Thurs AM) will likely be a different story. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 The low pressure system is in the process of lifting northeastward out of the area. As it does so, we are starting to see the widespread rain break up over southern portions of the area. This trend will gradually continue from south to north. As precipitation comes to an end, enough cold air may push in from the northwest to allow rain to briefly change to snow over northwestern portions of the area. I expect impacts to be minimal, but portions of Dawson county could possibly pick up a brief dusting of snow on grassy surfaces. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the 30s, but should remain above freezing for the local forecast area. Gusty northwest winds and abundant cloud cover should also prevent widespread frost from developing tonight. Dry conditions are expected to prevail on Wednesday, but models have trended a bit cloudier and a bit cooler, so it still won't be a very nice day. High temperatures are expected to only reach the 40s across Nebraska and near 50 degrees in northern Kansas. The next forecast concern is the potential for the first freeze of the season on Wednesday night. Clearing skies and decreasing winds should help maximize radiational cooling, so I feel confident that we will drop to our forecasted lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s. As such, the freeze watch was issued, and additional freeze warning/frost advisories will likely be necessary tomorrow as confidence further increases. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 The next chance for precipitation arrives Thursday night into Friday morning as a quick-moving northern-stream wave moves through the area. Models vary on the location of the heaviest QPF, but there is agreement of a band of precipitation across the local area. Given overnight timing of the system, some of this precip could certainly fall as snow. The latest EC is a little more aggressive with snow than previous runs, so the forecast now includes a few tenths of accumulation north of Interstate 80. Dry conditions return again by Friday afternoon but this break is expected to be rather brief. Another shortwave is expected to interact with remnant tropical moisture to bring another good chance for rain to the area on Saturday, with a slight chance for snow again Saturday night into Sunday morning. As this system departs Sunday night, it currently appears that we will see another widespread freeze late Sunday night into Monday morning. Current forecast lows range fro 24 to 30 degrees. Beyond that, the remainder of Monday will be fairly quiet weather-wise. In fact, most of the following week looks drier as we remain in a fairly quiet pattern locally. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday) Issued at 727 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 General overview: The entire period is currently expected to feature prevailing MVFR ceilings and primarily VFR visibility, although there will likely be a few fairly brief exceptions to both. Precipitation-wise, pesky light rain will hang on for a while tonight, but most of the period should be dry. Winds will remain rather breezy throughout from the north-northwest. Read on for more element-specific details... Ceiling/visibility: Confidence is high that nearly the entire period should feature MVFR ceiling, although it could flirt with low-end VFR especially late in the period on Wednesday afternoon. Earlier in the period, at least brief IFR cannot be ruled out (especially through around 09Z), but for now have only hinted at this with a "SCT008" mention. Visibility-wise, lingering light rain this evening will result in MVFR to perhaps IFR at times, but the majority of the period will be VFR. Precipitation: Pesky lingering light rain and/or drizzle remains fair game through at least 12Z, although measurable rain should largely be over with by 06Z. A few wet snowflakes cannot be ruled out late tonight as well (mainly at KEAR), but have not formally mentioned a rain/snow mix at this time. Winds: Direction will be fairly consistent through the period, but will shift from "true" northerly tonight to more northwesterly during the day Wednesday. It will also remain quite breezy most of the period. Both right away this evening and again through most of Wednesday, sustained speeds will commonly average around 15KT with gusts at least 20-25KT. The only modest "lull" in wind speeds would tend to focus between 05-13Z, during which time gusts should average under 20KT. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for NEZ039>041-046>048-060>063-072>076-082>085. KS...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for KSZ005-006-017. && $$ UPDATE...Pfannkuch SHORT TERM...Mangels LONG TERM...Mangels AVIATION...Pfannkuch