315 FXUS63 KGID 092055 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 355 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 The low pressure system is in the process of lifting northeastward out of the area. As it does so, we are starting to see the widespread rain break up over southern portions of the area. This trend will gradually continue from south to north. As precipitation comes to an end, enough cold air may push in from the northwest to allow rain to briefly change to snow over northwestern portions of the area. I expect impacts to be minimal, but portions of Dawson county could possibly pick up a brief dusting of snow on grassy surfaces. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the 30s, but should remain above freezing for the local forecast area. Gusty northwest winds and abundant cloud cover should also prevent widespread frost from developing tonight. Dry conditions are expected to prevail on Wednesday, but models have trended a bit cloudier and a bit cooler, so it still won't be a very nice day. High temperatures are expected to only reach the 40s across Nebraska and near 50 degrees in northern Kansas. The next forecast concern is the potential for the first freeze of the season on Wednesday night. Clearing skies and decreasing winds should help maximize radiational cooling, so I feel confident that we will drop to our forecasted lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s. As such, the freeze watch was issued, and additional freeze warning/frost advisories will likely be necessary tomorrow as confidence further increases. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 The next chance for precipitation arrives Thursday night into Friday morning as a quick-moving northern-stream wave moves through the area. Models vary on the location of the heaviest QPF, but there is agreement of a band of precipitation across the local area. Given overnight timing of the system, some of this precip could certainly fall as snow. The latest EC is a little more aggressive with snow than previous runs, so the forecast now includes a few tenths of accumulation north of Interstate 80. Dry conditions return again by Friday afternoon but this break is expected to be rather brief. Another shortwave is expected to interact with remnant tropical moisture to bring another good chance for rain to the area on Saturday, with a slight chance for snow again Saturday night into Sunday morning. As this system departs Sunday night, it currently appears that we will see another widespread freeze late Sunday night into Monday morning. Current forecast lows range fro 24 to 30 degrees. Beyond that, the remainder of Monday will be fairly quiet weather-wise. In fact, most of the following week looks drier as we remain in a fairly quiet pattern locally. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Widespread rain to continue through most of the afternoon at both GRI and EAR. Ceilings have been variable between IFR and low-end MVFR. I expect this variability to continue, so have included a TEMPO group to account for this. Rain will become more spotty late this afternoon and evening, although IFR ceilings expected to continue to prevail until Wednesday morning. Northerly winds will continue to gust to 25-30kts through this evening, decreasing to around 20kts tonight into Wednesday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for NEZ039>041-046>048-060>063-072>076-082>085. Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NEZ077-085>087. KS...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for KSZ005-006-017. Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ006-007-017>019. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mangels LONG TERM...Mangels AVIATION...Mangels