751 FXUS63 KGID 091719 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1219 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 426 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Another busy night with lots of weather to talk about through the forecast period. First and foremost...for today...despite the obvious band of moderate to heavy precipitation lifting northward towards the local area...decided to trim the flood watch on the northern end...as although another inch or so or precipitation is possible...so far precipitation totals overall have been overdone across these areas...and soils across this area are not as saturated as anticipated a couple of nights ago. Further south, across areas roughly south and east of a line extending from Geneva to Plainville...more robust rainfall totals have been noted the past few days and even an additional inch or so of rainfall could lead to some small stream, low lying and river flooding, so opted to keep the flood watch in tact across this area. Regarding the forecast...expect the upper level low centered across the four corners region of the southwest to rotate northeastward over the next 24 hours...bringing better forcing for additional showers and possibly a few thunderstorms across the local area. Because of very minimal instability forecast and the lack of actual thunderstorm activity the past few days...struggled with the idea of keeping thunderstorms in the forecast for portions of the local area today...albeit it isolated...but in the end opted to keep the mention of thunder as think that the additional lift and forcing provided by the progressing low justifies at least a small chance of convection today. By late afternoon and into the early evening hours...short term guidance is in fair agreement starting to wind down precipitation across the local area...and expect chances to end from south to north as we go through the overnight hours. While overall...the cloudy...cool and occasionally wet conditions will continue today...one major difference will be the stronger winds that will accompany the tightening pressure gradient in response to the shifting weather pattern. While this will make for a brisk afternoon and evening, The one saving grace of these winds...however...is that while they will decrease some overnight tonight...they should remain strong enough too keep temperatures from plummeting below freezing despite the decreasing cloud cover. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 426 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 A fairly active weather pattern is expected to continue through the extended periods as multiple lows and fronts cross the local area bringing along the chance for periodic precipitation chances. With the more northerly fetch of these systems...temperatures overall will be on the chilly side...with forecast temperatures running a good 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal norms through next weekend. While the timing is subject to change, this could potential lead to the first light snowfall of the season next Sunday...although plenty of uncertainty due to marginal 850 MB temps and quite a spread in guidance over that time period. In the closer term, however...confidence is increasing that widespread frost will be realized across the local area to start the day on Thursday as guidance has been trending downward the past few mornings...and many locations now could actually dip to near or below freezing to start the day Thursday. As a result...suspect that when flooding concerns begin to diminish later today...the flood watch will likely be followed by a frost advisory or even a freeze warning in spots. If widespread freezing temperatures are not realized Thursday morning, however, we wont need to wait long for even colder temps to invade the region...with lows Sunday morning currently expected to dip into the 20s across our entire forecast area...including across north central Kansas. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Widespread rain to continue through most of the afternoon at both GRI and EAR. Ceilings have been variable between IFR and low-end MVFR. I expect this variability to continue, so have included a TEMPO group to account for this. Rain will become more spotty late this afternoon and evening, although IFR ceilings expected to continue to prevail until Wednesday morning. Northerly winds will continue to gust to 25-30kts through this evening, decreasing to around 20kts tonight into Wednesday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NEZ077-085>087. KS...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ006-007-017>019. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rossi LONG TERM...Rossi AVIATION...Mangels