660 FXUS64 KFWD 102040 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 340 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM... /Tonight/ A quiet night is in store for North and Central Texas in wake of our recent deep trough and surface cold front. A drying low level airmass associated with cold advection continuing will result in cool night under clear skies. Lows in the mid-upper 40s northwest to the lower-mid 50s can be expected. Feel surface dew-point depressions greater than 2-3 degrees and north winds staying up around 5 mph should counter the strong radiational cooling expected and moist soils(though I'm sure some evaporation occurred today with plenty of insolation and NW winds 10-15 mph). With this in mind, I have elected to leave fog out of the forecast and will be something for the night forecasters to watch closely. A light jacket or long-sleeve shirt likely not a bad idea if you're planning to head out this evening or when walking out the door early Thursday morning. 05/ && .LONG TERM... /Thursday through next Wednesday/ Another quiet weather day is expected on Thursday as North and Central Texas will be centered in between Tuesday's system and the next round of precipitation. Thursday's temperatures are expected to remain in the mid 60s across the Red River, to mid 70s across Central Texas. Given the dry air still in place behind today's cold front, there will be no precipitation chances on Thursday. This Weekend... As we move into Friday, another shift in the upper level pattern will push a strong shortwave southward across the Plains. This shortwave will help draw moisture northward into North and Central Texas through the day, increasing PWs to around 1.5 by the afternoon. In the meantime, the remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio will be approaching West Texas Friday night, adding yet another source of moisture into the region. Latest model guidance detaches a piece of energy off of Sergio later today, and with the strong southwesterly flow approaching from the trough across the western CONUS, this energy will preclude the main forcing associated with the remnants of TS Sergio. This translates into an increasing potential for a few showers and isolated storms mid-day Friday. Models continue to diverge as to the speed of both Sergio's moisture, as well as the placement and progression of the cold front. The NAM suggests the cold front will move in Friday night into early Saturday, with lingering rain throughout the day. Although this is possible, I believe this is unlikely as the rest of the solutions develop a surface low across West Texas with the remnants of Sergio. If this is the case, North and Central Texas will be on the eastern side of the low, allowing for southeasterly winds to continue through most of the day Saturday, preventing the forward progression of the cold front. As the surface low moves across North Texas, rain chances will increase Saturday for the entire region. Given the lack of instability, most of the precipitation will be associated with rain showers, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms. Having said that, will have to monitor for increasing instability as that is the missing ingredient for an increased potential for severe thunderstorms. Precipitation will likely be ending from northwest to southeast as the cold front finally pushes across the region late Saturday into Sunday. The forward push will come from a passing shortwave riding along the strong northwesterly flow over the Rockies and into the Southern Plains. High temperatures on Sunday will likely remain in the low 60s across the northwest, to upper 70s in the southeast. Monday through Wednesday A secondary push of cooler air will likely move in on Monday, leading to highs in the 50s to low 60s area wide. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with the cooler temperatures, indicating highs in the mid 40s across the west. Highs in the 40s appear unlikely at this point, especially with the many uncertainties preceding Monday. If low level cold advection is stronger than currently anticipated, then this is certainly possible with cloud cover and lingering showers expected. It is important to note that out of the positively tilted trough across the Southern Plains will form a cut off low in the Pacific, and slowly move eastward through next week. This weather set up would continue to send disturbances across the region, leading to continued rain chances through mid week. High temperatures will continue to be in the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday as northerly winds and cloudy skies continue. As the cut off low retreats northward, high pressure will likely settle in by Thursday, leading to a mostly dry forecast to end next work week. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /Issued 1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ /18Z TAFS/ Challenges: None. NW winds AOB 10 knots will decouple after nightfall and become N 5 knots with a surface ridge settling across the area. Dry W flow aloft will keep VFR conditions of SKC-SCT250 overhead. As the surface ridge slowly shifts northeast of the area, unidirectional flow in the 925mb-850mb layer overhead will easily mix to the surface after 15z Thursday. NE winds are expected around 10 knots by 18z Thursday. 05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 52 70 57 74 58 / 0 0 5 30 30 Waco 55 73 58 79 63 / 0 0 0 20 30 Paris 51 69 53 70 54 / 0 0 5 20 20 Denton 50 69 55 72 55 / 0 0 5 40 30 McKinney 50 68 54 72 56 / 0 0 5 30 20 Dallas 56 71 58 75 59 / 0 0 5 30 30 Terrell 53 71 55 74 58 / 0 0 5 20 20 Corsicana 55 73 57 76 60 / 0 0 0 10 20 Temple 54 74 59 79 63 / 0 0 0 10 20 Mineral Wells 49 70 56 76 57 / 0 0 20 40 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 08/05