189 FXUS64 KFWD 100326 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1026 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .UPDATE... The main update to the short term forecast was to remove the mention of thunder and add some patchy fog/drizzle. In addition, overnight low temperatures were nudged downward by a few degrees. Rain continues to move into the deeper reaches of East Texas as of the 10pm hour. Dry air aloft as noted by GOES-16 WV imagery continues to invade from the southwest on the backside of an upper level low. While the surface front remains near a Sweetwater to Wichita Falls line...it appears that any renewed convective development will be combating a pretty hostile environment as subsidence continues to overspread the area. With low level moisture still being abundant, however, this may set up a scenario favorable for some patchy drizzle and I'll advertise this potential across most of the area. Farther south across Central Texas, skies have cleared and winds are calm. With recent rains aiding to the near surface moisture budget, there will be a brief window for some radiation fog ahead of FROPA. GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics RGB imagery does show "warm" cloud growth across Central Texas (especially in some of the valleys in the hilly terrain) indicating that this fog development may be underway. For now, I'll advertise only patchy fog as the front should sweep southward pretty quickly and scour out any remnant moisture. If the front slows, it's more probable that there could be some pockets of dense fog across Central Texas. Otherwise, nudged low temperatures down by a few degrees areawide based on the latest guidance. The rest of the short term forecast remains in decent shape and no other changes were needed. Bain && .AVIATION... /Issued 749 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ 00 UTC TAF Cycle Concerns---IFR/MVFR cig cessation and windshift associated with FROPA. The TAFs remain challenging in the short term across area terminals this evening. IFR ceilings appear to be ongoing in response to east/southeasterly flow atop earlier thunderstorm outflow. In fact, intermittent drizzle was noted here at our office in North Fort Worth suggesting some gradual ascent atop the shallow cool/moist airmass. It appears probable that this ascent will likely persist through the evening hours and as a result, I'll maintain intermittent IFR cigs in some fashion at all TAF sites. As southerly winds return, IFR cigs will lift above FL010. MVFR cigs appear most probable around 0300/0400 UTC. The latest projections are that a front...now located across southwest Oklahoma and the South Plains of Texas...will slide southward resulting in much drier near surface air. There will be some residual moisture atop the initial cool surge, so we could see MVFR cigs persist through Wednesday morning. There will also be a low potential for a few showers along the front, but the dry air aloft precludes mentioning this in the TAFs at this time. VFR is expected to return early Wednesday morning with breezy northwest winds expected in the wake of FROPA. Bain && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 343 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ /Rest of Today and Tonight/ Precipitation chances will be ending from west to east through the night as the main upper level storm system pushes to the east. The shortwave that has lead to widespread precipitation will continue pushing northeast through the rest of the day. Much drier air is now moving in from West Texas, and can clearly be seen on satellite as cloud cover slowly erodes. Temperatures have struggled to make it out of the 60s where precipitation is falling, and even behind the precipitation shield where sunshine has broken out, temperatures continue to be in the upper 60s to around 70. The associated cold front is still located well north of the region, extending from western Oklahoma through the Texas Panhandle. This cold front will be approaching the region tonight and bring in cooler air into the region. Hi-res models are hinting at a resurgence of showers with isolated storms mainly east of Interstate 35 after midnight. Subsidence behind the daytime precipitation and the lack of solar radiation will keep instability limited, and therefore believe the risk for severe weather will outside of the region. Cool temperatures will settle in west of Interstate 35, with lows in the low 50s expected in the far northwestern counties. Breezy winds behind the cold front will help abate the formation of fog tonight. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 343 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ /Wednesday Through Monday/ Skies will continue clearing early Wednesday morning, as a cold front clears the Upper Texas coast. The main shortwave energy associated with this slow-moving longwave trough will pass east across the area in the morning. Shortwave ridging aloft will then develop over the area later on Wednesday and continuing through Thursday. Mostly sunny, breezy, and cool conditions will prevail with highs mostly in the 70s, though an isolated reading in the upper 60s will be possible along the immediate Red River Valley. Despite mainly clear skies and cool temperatures Wednesday night(upper 40s northwest to the mid 50s southeast), north winds should remain in the 5-10 degree range from continuing, yet weakening low level cold advection, so will not introduce any fog for Thursday morning as of now, but we'll take a closer look at that on Wednesday. Thursday will be another sunny and pleasant day after the cool start in the morning. Undirectional northerly flow in the low levels will mix down and bring a north breeze 10 to 15 mph once again, with highs mostly in the 70s. If the low level cold advection doesn't linger as long as currently advertised, then forecast highs may need to be warmed up, especially in Central Texas where it would then warm into the lower 80s. After another cool start to the day on Friday in the 50s, a pattern shift begins to materialize by Friday night and continuing through this coming weekend into Monday. Low level warm advection will resume just above the surface Friday afternoon and night with increasing cloudiness. The increasing clouds and spotty moist soils across the region should counter the warm advection enough to keep highs contained mostly in the 70s, though better insolation across Central Texas should allow for highs to warm into the lower 80s at a few locales. A positively tilted and nearly stationary longwave trough organizing over the Great Basin and California the end of the week begins drawing remnants of what is currently Hurricane Sergio northeastward over the Pacific Ocean and across Baja California and Northwest Mexico on Friday. Meanwhile, a strong shortwave trough gathers over the Northern Plains and Midwest. This detaching pattern across the Western U.S. usually presents several challenges across the Southern Rockies and Plains. Medium range models are struggling on how this affects Sergio's remnants as it approaches Arizona/New Mexico Friday Night. For now, thinking is the low levels will be too dry Friday night for any convective chances across our western counties, as models continue to diverge on tracking both a surface cold front into the area this weekend and timing of higher rain chances. Have stayed close to the model blends this far out, with a slight lean to the more realistic and shallow cold frontal surge of the European model. This would bring the cold front early Sunday morning, possibly 3-6 hours sooner than the GFS which is more dynamic with a surface low tracking east across Southern Oklahoma Saturday night and holding the surface cold front up a bit longer. Either way, will maintain the trend of increasing rain chances with the cold front later Saturday and continuing into Sunday. Once again, some localized heavier rains are possible Saturday night and Sunday due to our already well-above normal rainfall the past 30-60 days. A mild and breezy day Saturday in the 70s with gusty south winds will transition into a wet and cooler day by Sunday afternoon with gusty north winds arriving behind the cold front. Yes, looks like true Fall is arriving for next week. My highs ahead of the front Sunday for areas along and south of I-20 may be a bit optimistic with the cloud cover and if the front is faster than currently expected. We'll continue to fine tune the weekend forecast in the coming days. More widespread lows in the 40s are expected by Monday morning, as low level cold advection ramps up behind the departing system and cold front. It'll continue cloudy with brisk north winds and a slight chances of light rain showers. Highs likely won't make it out of the 50s north, lower 60s Central Texas and that again may be on the optimistic side being the cloud cover and cold advection likely won't allow for much of a diurnal warming trend. 05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 58 73 55 71 56 / 10 0 0 0 5 Waco 60 77 54 76 56 / 10 0 0 0 5 Paris 62 73 52 69 52 / 40 0 0 0 5 Denton 54 72 51 70 54 / 10 0 0 0 5 McKinney 56 72 52 70 53 / 20 0 0 0 5 Dallas 57 75 56 72 57 / 20 0 0 0 5 Terrell 60 76 53 74 54 / 40 0 0 0 5 Corsicana 64 75 55 75 55 / 40 0 0 0 5 Temple 60 77 55 76 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 54 72 51 72 54 / 5 0 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 24/79