163 FXUS64 KFWD 092043 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 343 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SHORT TERM... /Rest of Today and Tonight/ Precipitation chances will be ending from west to east through the night as the main upper level storm system pushes to the east. The shortwave that has lead to widespread precipitation will continue pushing northeast through the rest of the day. Much drier air is now moving in from West Texas, and can clearly be seen on satellite as cloud cover slowly erodes. Temperatures have struggled to make it out of the 60s where precipitation is falling, and even behind the precipitation shield where sunshine has broken out, temperatures continue to be in the upper 60s to around 70. The associated cold front is still located well north of the region, extending from western Oklahoma through the Texas Panhandle. This cold front will be approaching the region tonight and bring in cooler air into the region. Hi-res models are hinting at a resurgence of showers with isolated storms mainly east of Interstate 35 after midnight. Subsidence behind the daytime precipitation and the lack of solar radiation will keep instability limited, and therefore believe the risk for severe weather will outside of the region. Cool temperatures will settle in west of Interstate 35, with lows in the low 50s expected in the far northwestern counties. Breezy winds behind the cold front will help abate the formation of fog tonight. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Wednesday Through Monday/ Skies will continue clearing early Wednesday morning, as a cold front clears the Upper Texas coast. The main shortwave energy associated with this slow-moving longwave trough will pass east across the area in the morning. Shortwave ridging aloft will then develop over the area later on Wednesday and continuing through Thursday. Mostly sunny, breezy, and cool conditions will prevail with highs mostly in the 70s, though an isolated reading in the upper 60s will be possible along the immediate Red River Valley. Despite mainly clear skies and cool temperatures Wednesday night(upper 40s northwest to the mid 50s southeast), north winds should remain in the 5-10 degree range from continuing, yet weakening low level cold advection, so will not introduce any fog for Thursday morning as of now, but we'll take a closer look at that on Wednesday. Thursday will be another sunny and pleasant day after the cool start in the morning. Undirectional northerly flow in the low levels will mix down and bring a north breeze 10 to 15 mph once again, with highs mostly in the 70s. If the low level cold advection doesn't linger as long as currently advertised, then forecast highs may need to be warmed up, especially in Central Texas where it would then warm into the lower 80s. After another cool start to the day on Friday in the 50s, a pattern shift begins to materialize by Friday night and continuing through this coming weekend into Monday. Low level warm advection will resume just above the surface Friday afternoon and night with increasing cloudiness. The increasing clouds and spotty moist soils across the region should counter the warm advection enough to keep highs contained mostly in the 70s, though better insolation across Central Texas should allow for highs to warm into the lower 80s at a few locales. A positively tilted and nearly stationary longwave trough organizing over the Great Basin and California the end of the week begins drawing remnants of what is currently Hurricane Sergio northeastward over the Pacific Ocean and across Baja California and Northwest Mexico on Friday. Meanwhile, a strong shortwave trough gathers over the Northern Plains and Midwest. This detaching pattern across the Western U.S. usually presents several challenges across the Southern Rockies and Plains. Medium range models are struggling on how this affects Sergio's remnants as it approaches Arizona/New Mexico Friday Night. For now, thinking is the low levels will be too dry Friday night for any convective chances across our western counties, as models continue to diverge on tracking both a surface cold front into the area this weekend and timing of higher rain chances. Have stayed close to the model blends this far out, with a slight lean to the more realistic and shallow cold frontal surge of the European model. This would bring the cold front early Sunday morning, possibly 3-6 hours sooner than the GFS which is more dynamic with a surface low tracking east across Southern Oklahoma Saturday night and holding the surface cold front up a bit longer. Either way, will maintain the trend of increasing rain chances with the cold front later Saturday and continuing into Sunday. Once again, some localized heavier rains are possible Saturday night and Sunday due to our already well-above normal rainfall the past 30-60 days. A mild and breezy day Saturday in the 70s with gusty south winds will transition into a wet and cooler day by Sunday afternoon with gusty north winds arriving behind the cold front. Yes, looks like true Fall is arriving for next week. My highs ahead of the front Sunday for areas along and south of I-20 may be a bit optimistic with the cloud cover and if the front is faster than currently expected. We'll continue to fine tune the weekend forecast in the coming days. More widespread lows in the 40s are expected by Monday morning, as low level cold advection ramps up behind the departing system and cold front. It'll continue cloudy with brisk north winds and a slight chances of light rain showers. Highs likely won't make it out of the 50s north, lower 60s Central Texas and that again may be on the optimistic side being the cloud cover and cold advection likely won't allow for much of a diurnal warming trend. 05/ && .AVIATION... /Issued 1258 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ /18Z TAFS/ Challenges: All near-term issues with convection(not continuous), cigs, and vsbys through 21z, then then timing wind shifts 00z through 09z Wednesday with a pre-frontal trough arriving by mid evening, then cold FROPA arriving by midnight or shortly thereafter. Cigs/vsbys will continue to fluctuate between MVFR cigs on either side of FL020 and VFR cigs BLO FL100 through 21z and in behind the line of heavier TS/SHRA currently moving across all North and Central TX airports. Afterward, VCSH/-RA could linger through 00z before veering low level winds from the W/SW flow around 10 knots occurs in wake of our linear storm cluster. Cold FROPA is progged to arrive across DFW Metro airports between 04z-06z, then through Waco Regional by 06z with winds shifting NW 10-15 knots with possible higher gusts. For now, confidence is too low to add gusts. Otherwise, skies will scatter after FROPA and by 09z Wednesday. DFW will be right on the western edge of nocturnal TS/SHRA development from the parent mid-level upper trough moving across the region. At this time, most activity should be "elevated" in nature and with weak mid level lapse rates less than 6 deg C/km, will only advertise VCSH/-RA for a few brief hours either side of 06z Wednesday. 05/ && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... /Issued 1058 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ Main concern through today will be the potential for severe weather across North and Central Texas. The RAP analysis continues to favor a concentrated area for increased tornado potential through the early afternoon hours for Central Texas. Clearing skies will lead to an increase in instability, priming the atmosphere for additional storm development as we go into the afternoon. Low level wind shear is becoming enhanced given the localized southeasterly to easterly winds. Within the large scale southeasterly flow, a few radar echoes are now moving into East Texas, likely from a slight perturbation in the pressure field. Showers will have the potential to intensify into supercells given 2500+ J/Kg forecast CAPE, and with the enhancement of the surface winds, storms that do develop will have the potential to rotate increasing the threat for a few tornadoes. Across North Texas (including the Metroplex), the threat for severe weather has ended as much cooler temperatures are expected to remain due to the extensive cloud cover from the convection across Central Texas. Previous thinking that another round of storms would move in from the west is fading, and now believe only a few showers will remain across North Texas as the atmosphere continues to be worked over. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 58 73 55 71 56 / 40 0 0 0 5 Waco 60 77 54 76 56 / 50 0 0 0 5 Paris 62 73 52 69 52 / 80 0 0 0 5 Denton 54 72 51 70 54 / 30 0 0 0 5 McKinney 56 72 52 70 53 / 50 0 0 0 5 Dallas 57 75 56 72 57 / 40 0 0 0 5 Terrell 60 76 53 74 54 / 60 0 0 0 5 Corsicana 64 75 55 75 55 / 70 0 0 0 5 Temple 60 77 55 76 57 / 50 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 54 72 51 72 54 / 20 0 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 08/05