080 FXUS63 KFSD 110353 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1053 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 403 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The upper level low continues to drift across northeastern/east central SD late this afternoon, and will slide northeastward into Canada by Thursday morning. Radar/obs are still indicating a little light rain/drizzle mainly from Interstate 90 northward, and this precipitation is expected to diminish through the afternoon and early evening, exiting over southwestern MN by mid evening. Clouds will be slow to decrease overnight, with the better chances over south central SD into the MO River Valley. At the same time, gusty northwesterly winds will only gradually diminish from the west as the surface low moves away and the gradient relaxes. Both these factors will play a role in how cold it gets tonight, so the low temperature forecast is rather tricky. With the expectation that clouds will begin to decrease in the west and winds will slowly die down, locales west of Interstate 29 have the potential to drop into the upper 20s. To the east where clouds will be more abundant and winds will be stronger, anticipate temperatures to remain in the lower 30s. Based on this and in coordination with surrounding offices, elected to issue a Freeze Warning for all counties from Interstate 29 and westward. Surface high pressure will build over the area on Thursday. With the gradient relaxing further, winds will continue to taper downward through the day. Clouds will decrease from west to east, though portions of southwestern MN may remain cloudy into the late afternoon. It will remain cool with highs around 40 through the Highway 14 corridor to the mid 40s in the MO River Valley. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 403 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The theme for the end of the week into the beginning of next week will be a drying conditions and temperatures below normal. Clouds will increase on Thursday evening out ahead of the next shortwave to affect the area. This feature will slide out of the Northern Rockies on Thursday night, tracking through the Northern Plains on Friday. All models develop precipitation over the southwestern portions of our CWA late Thursday night, focused through south central SD and the MO River Valley. Low temperatures are again a bit tricky with cloud cover and an evolving southerly low level flow, and while readings may touch on freezing over that area at some point in the night, think temperatures will warm slightly by the time the precipitation comes in. Temperatures aloft will be cold enough to support snow, but do not expect much in the way of accumulation as temperatures warm into the mid 30s by Friday morning. The better chances will be over parts of south central SD where a few tenths could accumulate. With weak warm air advection, Friday will slightly warmer in the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 40s. After that, any precipitation chances look minimal through the beginning of next week. A frontal boundary will slide across the area on Saturday, and with enhanced mixing there will be a brief warm up as highs climb into the lower 50s. This front will usher in much cooler air for Sunday with highs mainly in the mid and upper 30s. Some small relief in sight for the beginning of next week with a gradual warming trend as highs climb into the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 A few flurries will linger for a few hours tonight, mainly across the central portion of the forecast area near I-29. Activity will be light enough that visibility reductions are not expected. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will continue through much of the overnight hours, however some gradual improvement is expected to arrive late tonight into Thursday morning. Most locations should be VFR by 18z, but lower ceilings may linger longer across portions of southwest Minnesota. Mid and high clouds will be on the increase Thursday evening with the approach of the next system from the west, late in the TAF period. Right now low ceilings and any precipitation will hold off for TAF locations. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Thursday for SDZ038>040-050- 052>071. MN...None. IA...None. NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Thursday for NEZ013-014. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...