938 
FXUS65 KFGZ 111045
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
345 AM MST Thu Oct 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...An unsettled weather pattern will be over the region
today through the upcoming weekend. Expect a chance for showers
and thunderstorms each day, with cooler than average daytime 
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A band of showers has developed across northwestern
Arizona this morning in response to low level moisture interacting
with a developing trough over California. Measurable rain ranging
from 0.10 - 0.30 inches has fallen over northwestern Coconino 
County so far. This band will move northeast into Utah later this 
morning. Elsewhere, expect scattered showers to develop and 
continue through the day. A few thunderstorms are possible this 
afternoon, but coverage will be limited by marginal instability. 
Light to moderate precipitation amounts are expected.

Model forecasts are in pretty good agreement with the overall
evolution of the pattern over the coming days. Remnants from
Hurricane Sergio will track across northern Mexico Friday, pushing
just enough moisture north to maintain a chance for showers and
thunderstorms mainly along and south of the Rim and White
Mountains. Meanwhile, the trough over California develops a 
closed low off the coast of southern California that begins to 
move east on Saturday. This low will bring additional showers and 
thunderstorms to the state as it moves through over the weekend. 
The Mogollon Rim southward again looks to be favored over the 
weekend due to the better availability of moisture. A trough to 
our north will push a cold front through northern Arizona Sunday 
night into Monday bringing much cooler temperatures and breezy 
northerly winds. The biggest uncertainty in the current forecast
is forecast precipitation amounts over the weekend when there is 
better potential for convective showers/storms.

Models begin to diverge on Tuesday with how to handle another 
potential closed low forming over Arizona. We will keep low 
chances for showers in the extended forecast with cool 
temperatures, but confidence is low beyond Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Primarily VFR conditions for the 
next 24 hours. A few remaining -SHRA/-SHSN remain north of a line 
from KGCN to KPGA. These will shift off to the north after 15z. 
After 18Z Thursday, more widespread -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible 
mainly along the high terrain. Local MVFR/IFR conditions will be 
possible with heavier showers. Aviation discussion not updated for 
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Below average temperatures will persist. Isolated to 
scattered storms will be possible Thursday afternoon mainly along 
the high terrain. 

Saturday through Monday...Unsettled weather will bring showers and 
storms through the weekend. By Monday, conditions begin to dry out 
across the northern portion of the area with only a chance of storms 
and showers near the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...ET
FIRE WEATHER...ET


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff