613 
FXUS65 KFGZ 110403
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
900 PM MST Wed Oct 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A trough of low pressure developing over California
will bring increasing moisture and clouds over northern Arizona 
tonight. An unsettled weather pattern will then continue Thursday 
and through the upcoming weekend. Expect a chance for showers each 
day, with cooler than average daytime temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Boundary layer moisture continues to increase across 
southern, central and western Arizona, as a trough continues to sit 
over the Great Basin. This trough will eventually split, with the 
western portion cutting off west of KLAX. This will cause a complex 
interaction with the moisture pool associated with Sergio as we head 
into the weekend.

Backing up a bit, enough moisture already exists over much of the 
area for showers. However, a significant cap at 580mb will prevent 
much activity from forming. This will change overnight as hght falls 
work into the northern sections of the state, eventually weakening 
the cap to the point that showers and isolated thunderstorms will 
form over Coconino and Yavapai counties heading into the day on 
Thursday.

By Friday and Saturday, moisture profiles are deep enough for 
showers just about anywhere. Even some potentially enhanced activity 
as mid-level cooling and dynamics arrive over the weekend, as the 
aforementioned cutoff low moves onshore.

Grids/forecast have these trends in hand and updates are not needed 
tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Primarily VFR conditions 
for the next 24 hours. Til 12Z Thu, areas north of a Window Rock 
Winslow line, expect sct-bkn clouds, bases AOA 11 kft msl and a 
slight chance of -SHRA/high elevation -SHSN. These conditions 
spreading southward after 12Z Thu, with mvfr cigs possible across 
the high terrain. After 18Z Thursday, add a chance of an afternoon 
thunderstorm to the mix. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF 
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Below average high temperatures will persist. 
Coverage of showers and storms will continue to increase and spread 
south and east on Thursday and Friday.

.Saturday through Monday...Chances of showers and storms will 
continue throughout the weekend, along with below average high 
temperatures. Chance of storms and showers Monday near the White 
Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...NL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff