216 
FXUS65 KFGZ 102233
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
333 PM MST Wed Oct 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A trough of low pressure developing over California
will bring increasing moisture and clouds over northern Arizona 
tonight. An unsettled weather pattern will then continue Thursday 
through the upcoming weekend. Expect a chance for showers each day
with cooler than average daytime temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Cloud cover over western and northern Arizona is 
rather extensive. However, only a few showers were being picked up
on radar near the Utah border in far northern Coconino County.

A developing trough of low pressure over California this 
afternoon will continue to draw more moisture over Arizona through
the night. This moisture will interact with the trough to produce
increasing showers across the area tonight and Thursday. The bulk
of the moisture is below 600 mb so precipitation amounts should 
remain low...0.25 - 0.50 inches or less. 

The remnants of Hurricane Sergio are forecast to track across
northern Mexico on Friday. Little impact from this tropical system
are expected in northern Arizona. However, there will be enough 
moisture and instability from the trough over California to 
continue the chance of showers and thunderstorms over northern 
Arizona.

The trough of low pressure over California today is forecast to
drop south and cut off west of San Diego by Saturday. This closed
low is forecast to slowly meander across the southwest this 
weekend into next week. This would would lead to a prolonged 
period of cool and unsettled weather with continued chances for 
showers and thunderstorms into next week. Models have diverged on
solutions for this pattern. Stay tuned for details on this 
developing pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions are expected 
through the forecast period. Afternoon SW winds 10-15 kts with gusts 
20-25 kts becoming lighter after 01Z. Possible overnight ISOLD to 
SCT -SHRA/-SHSN for areas along the northwestern AZ/NV/UT border and 
over the Kaibab Plateau. SCT -TSRA after 18Z Thursday. Aviation 
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Below average high temperatures will persist. 
Coverage of showers and storms will continue to increase and spread 
south and east on Thursday and Friday.

.Saturday through Monday...Chances of showers and storms will 
continue throughout the weekend, along with below average high 
temperatures. Chance of storms and showers Monday near the White 
Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...NL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff