211 
FXUS65 KFGZ 101647
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
947 AM MST Wed Oct 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A weak weather disturbance will bring clouds to the
higher terrain today with a few light showers possible north of 
Interstate 40 this afternoon. An unsettled weather pattern will 
then return to the region Thursday through the upcoming weekend. 
Expect a chance for showers each day with cooler than average 
temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...A weak shortwave is brushing northern Arizona today from
Utah. The 12Z KFGZ sounding showed a moist layer below 
680 mb. Southwest upslope flow is lifting this moisture and
creating clouds from the White Mountains, Mogollon Rim, northward
to the Kaibab Plateau. Updated forecast to increase cloud cover
southeast of Flagstaff today. Otherwise, forecast looks good. 


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /347 AM MST/...A long wave trough will remain
over the western U.S. through the remainder of the week keeping a
cool, breezy and unsettled weather pattern over Arizona. A
shortwave is moving from Utah into Colorado this morning, which
will push a cool front along the Arizona/Utah border. Expect
enhanced cloud cover in this area this morning with perhaps a few
light showers. This wave quickly pushes east later today while
another shortwave dropping down from the north deepens the trough
over the southwestern U.S. An increase in low level moisture will
interact with the trough to produce scattered showers across the
area today and Thursday. Shallow moisture and the lack of any
significant forcing should keep precipitation amounts light - on
the order of 0.25 - 0.50 inches or less. The trough combined with
enhanced cloud cover and shower activity will keep daytime
temperatures about 10 degrees below average through the end of
the work week.

The remnants of Hurricane Sergio are forecast to track across
northern Mexico on Friday. There will be enough moisture along
and south of the Mogollon Rim to continue the chance of showers,
with otherwise very little impact from the Hurricane remnants on
northern Arizona. Of greater impact is the potential for the
aforementioned trough to form a closed low off the southern
California coast that is forecast to slowly meander across the
southwest this weekend through early next week. This would lead to
a prolonged period of cool and unsettled weather with continued
chances for showers and thunderstorms into next week. Stay tuned
for details on this developing pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions are expected 
through the forecast period. Afternoon SW winds 10-15 kts with gusts 
20-25 kts becoming lighter after 01z. ISOLD to SCT -SHRA/-SHSN are 
possible for areas along the northwestern AZ/NV/UT border and over 
the Kaibab Plateau. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF 
amendments.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...For Wednesday and Thursday...expect breezy southwest 
winds and below average temperatures. Isolated to scattered showers 
are possible across western Coconino and Yavapai Counties Wednesday 
before coverage spreads further east Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Showers and storms are expected over the 
eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains on Friday. Precipitation 
chances will continue into the weekend. Below average high 
temperatures will persist through this period.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/MCT
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...NL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff