546 
FXUS65 KFGZ 101047
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
347 AM MST Wed Oct 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Fair weather will continue today with a few light
showers possible. An unsettled weather pattern will remain over
the region Thursday through the upcoming weekend. Expect a chance
for showers each day with cooler than average temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A long wave trough will remain over the western U.S.
through the remainder of the week keeping a cool, breezy and 
unsettled weather pattern over Arizona. A shortwave is moving from
Utah into Colorado this morning, which will push a cool front 
along the Arizona/Utah border. Expect enhanced cloud cover in this
area this morning with perhaps a few light showers. This wave 
quickly pushes east later today while another shortwave dropping
down from the north deepens the trough over the southwestern U.S.
An increase in low level moisture will interact with the trough 
to produce scattered showers across the area today and Thursday. 
Shallow moisture and the lack of any significant forcing should 
keep precipitation amounts light - on the order of 0.25 - 0.50 
inches or less. The trough combined with enhanced cloud cover and 
shower activity will keep daytime temperatures about 10 degrees 
below average through the end of the work week.

The remnants of Hurricane Sergio are forecast to track across
northern Mexico on Friday. There will be enough moisture along 
and south of the Mogollon Rim to continue the chance of showers, 
with otherwise very little impact from the Hurricane remnants on 
northern Arizona. Of greater impact is the potential for the 
aforementioned trough to form a closed low off the southern 
California coast that is forecast to slowly meander across the 
southwest this weekend through early next week. This would lead to
a prolonged period of cool and unsettled weather with continued 
chances for showers and thunderstorms into next week. Stay tuned 
for details on this developing pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions are expected 
through the forecast period. After 18z Wed SW winds 10-15 kts with 
gusts 20 to 25 kts becoming lighter after 02z. Isolated to scattered 
-SHRA/-SHSN are possible for areas along the northwestern AZ/NV/UT
 border and along the Kaibab Plateau. Aviation discussion not 
 updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...For Wednesday and Thursday...expect breezy southwest 
winds and below average temperatures. Isolated to scattered 
showers are possible across western Coconino and Yavapai County 
Wednesday before coverage spreads east Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Showers and storms are expected over the 
east Rim and White Mountains on Friday. Precipitation chances will 
continue into the weekend. Below average high temperatures will 
persist through this period.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...ET
FIRE WEATHER...ET


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff