756 
FXUS65 KFGZ 100418 CCA
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
855 PM MST Tue Oct 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Fair and somewhat warmer weather will return for
Wednesday with a few light showers over western Coconino and
Yavapai counties. Unsettled weather will persist from Thursday
into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Forecast is on track with a robust trough passing
across northern UT tonight, generating brisk winds and an outside 
chance of an isolated shower near the UT border. It will be cool 
overnight, with temperatures falling below freezing once again over 
the high country. Have updated the grids this evening for more 
clouds over NE AZ, and warmed the overnight forecast low temps a bit 
in this area. Previous forecast is in good shape, and no other 
updates planned.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /301 PM MST/...A vigorous short wave trough will
move across the Great Basin tonight through Wednesday morning. We
expect most associated precipitation to remain north in Utah, but
there is an outside chance of some light rain or snow on the
Kaibab Plateau tonight. On Wednesday, expect showers to develop
across western Coconino and Yavapai counties in the afternoon in
association with a wind speed max aloft. These chances should
persist overnight.

A short wave trough moving out of southern CA on Thursday is
forecast to weaken as it moves into AZ, but even so expect some
light precipitation amounts over primarily areas west of I-17/US
89.

Friday through the weekend...the circulation associated with
Sergio is forecast to remain well southeast of the forecast area.
We currently expect some light rain over portions of the east
Rim/White Mountains and perhaps Gila County on Friday
afternoon/evening. Low precipitation chances persist during the
weekend, but with notable model spread concerning the timing and
evolution of features. Considerable timing differences exist
regarding the movement toward Arizona of a closed low off the
Pacific coast, and regarding the strength/southwestward extent of
a rapidly moving short wave trough on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...CIGS AOA OVC070 will persist
along and northeast of a line from KPGA-KGUP through 10Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast 
period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect high temperatures from 5 to 10 degrees below
average on Wednesday and Thursday, with breezy southwest winds
especially on Wednesday. A few showers are forecast to develop
across western Coconino and Yavapai counties on Wednesday, with
greater precipitation coverage over northern Arizona on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Light rainfall amounts are expected over
the east Rim and White Mountains on Friday. Low precipitation 
chances will continue into the weekend. Below average high
temperatures will persist.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BAK/AT
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...BAK


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff