367 
FXUS65 KFGZ 092201
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
301 PM MST Tue Oct 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Fair and somewhat warmer weather will return for 
Wednesday with a few light showers over western Coconino and
Yavapai counties. Unsettled weather will persist from Thursday
into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A vigorous short wave trough will move across the
Great Basin tonight through Wednesday morning. We expect most
associated precipitation to remain north in Utah, but there is an
outside chance of some light rain or snow on the Kaibab Plateau
tonight. On Wednesday, expect showers to develop across western
Coconino and Yavapai counties in the afternoon in association with
a wind speed max aloft. These chances should persist overnight.

A short wave trough moving out of southern CA on Thursday is
forecast to weaken as it moves into AZ, but even so expect some
light precipitation amounts over primarily areas west of I-17/US
89.

Friday through the weekend...the circulation associated with
Sergio is forecast to remain well southeast of the forecast area.
We currently expect some light rain over portions of the east
Rim/White Mountains and perhaps Gila County on Friday
afternoon/evening. Low precipitation chances persist during the 
weekend, but with notable model spread concerning the timing and
evolution of features. Considerable timing differences exist
regarding the movement toward Arizona of a closed low off the
Pacific coast, and regarding the strength/southwestward extent of
a rapidly moving short wave trough on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the next 
24 hours with generally light winds with a few afternoon gusts to 
around 20 knots. Southwest winds 15 to 25 kts developing after 17Z 
Wednesday. Isolated -SHRA in Apache County through 02Z this 
evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
 
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect high temperatures from 5 to 10 degrees below
average on Wednesday and Thursday, with breezy southwest winds
especially on Wednesday. A few showers are forecast to develop
across western Coconino and Yavapai counties on Wednesday, with
greater precipitation coverage over northern Arizona on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Light rainfall amounts are expected over
the east Rim and White Mountains on Friday. Low precipitation 
chances will continue into the weekend. Below average high
temperatures will persist.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...AT
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...AT


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