914 FXUS63 KFGF 111442 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 942 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 942 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Light snow continues to rotate around upper low and composite/regional radar continues to show light returns across the northern RRV, with lower vis reported at Baudette. This may result in a dusting of accumulation, but overall impacts should be limited. I adjusted PoPs to account for current trends, but still expect a decreasing trend west to east through the early afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 641 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Still seeing steady light snow over the northern Red River Valley into adjacent areas of northwest Minnesota. Visibilities in this snow band have dropped down to around 2 miles at times. Wind speeds have lost their higher gusts, but sustained winds are still around 15 to 20 mph. There is clearing across far western North Dakota, but it may take most of the day to move into portions of eastern North Dakota. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 The snow event is slowly winding down, although there are still a few steadier snow bands across northwest Minnesota. Wind speeds have also been dropping. Flurries or light snow will linger into today, especially around the Lake of the Woods region. Not sure how long the clouds will hold around, but they are thinning over southern Saskatchewan and far western North Dakota. A little bit of sun would help aid in the melting process. With a pretty widespread swath of snow across most of the FA, not expecting much temperature rise today. The coldest high ever at Fargo is 34 degrees, and that is what we are forecasting today. The biggest question people will probably be asking as they wake up this morning is what the road conditions are. Both the ND and MN Departments of Transportation have updated maps on their websites. The heaviest snow fell just west of the Red River Valley in east central North Dakota, and that is where the ND DOT site shows the worst road conditions. High pressure is expected to build in tonight, with better chances for clearing over eastern ND (where the heaviest snow fell). With the fresh snow cover, temperatures are expected to dip into the teens west of the Red River Valley. Fargo's record low tonight is 13 degrees, which should be safe. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Cool conditions will last through the first half of the upcoming week with rain and snow chances returning to the forecast for the upcoming weekend. Although confidence is low at this time, warmer and drier conditions may be coming by the middle part of next week. Friday... As surface high pressure builds over much of the northern Plains, dry but cool conditions are expected. Cold air funneling southward into the region will keep temperatures on the cool side with highs in the 30s and 40s. Saturday through Monday... A northwesterly flow regime is expected to establish itself over the coming days over the northern CONUS/Canada. This will allow a series of upper level shortwaves to propagate southeastward from Canada into the region. The first of these waves will bring rain and snow chances to northeast ND and northern MN beginning Saturday morning. Initially, strong warm air advection and isentropic ascent ahead of the main upper level and mid level low will allow for rain across the northern half of ND and much of northwest MN. Forecast soundings from Saturday afternoon show warm temperatures aloft that, along with strong ensemble agreement in surface temperatures a few degrees above freezing, suggest rain as the dominant precip type. But given recent snowfall cover over much of the area, attention will have to be given to future surface temp forecasts to watch for the potential for a narrow window for freezing rain/sleet. A change over to a rain/snow mix and eventually all snow is expected heading into Saturday evening through Sunday morning as colder air on the back side of the low pushes into the region. As this occurs, strong cold low level advection may allow for wind gusts up to 25-35 mph across much of North Dakota. Snow accumulation is most likely across northwest and north central Minnesota at this time, but may shift slightly depending on the exact track of the low. Snowfall accumulations on the order of one to two inches are anticipated. Snowfall will gradually be coming to an end Sunday night/Monday morning with clearing conditions expected through Monday night. Tuesday through Wednesday... Although a few deterministic and ensemble forecasts show another upper level wave pushing through the northern Plains during this period, overall confidence on any precipitation is low due to high spread in forecast solutions. However, many ensembles show a warm and dry signal from Tuesday into Wednesday. Exact high temperatures will be dependent on the evolution of the upper level pattern and any subsequent surface features that develop with the upper level wave. Confidence in this portion of the extended forecast will increase in the coming days as ensembles and deterministic models begin to agree on a forecast solution. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 641 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 The snow bands across the northern Red River Valley into northwest Minnesota will affect KGFK/KTVF and KBJI for a while yet this morning. Visibilities in this snow band have dropped down to around 2 miles at times. There should be a slow rise in ceiling heights today, probably more so west of the Red River Valley. Have added an AMD NOT SKED at KTVF, as the observation is not making it out into the distribution network. It is available via dial up, but that is not dependable for rapidly changing weather conditions. The FAA has been notified of the outage. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR SHORT TERM...Godon LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...Godon