038 FXUS63 KFGF 110835 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 335 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 The snow event is slowly winding down, although there are still a few steadier snow bands across northwest Minnesota. Wind speeds have also been dropping. Flurries or light snow will linger into today, especially around the Lake of the Woods region. Not sure how long the clouds will hold around, but they are thinning over southern Saskatchewan and far western North Dakota. A little bit of sun would help aid in the melting process. With a pretty widespread swath of snow across most of the FA, not expecting much temperature rise today. The coldest high ever at Fargo is 34 degrees, and that is what we are forecasting today. The biggest question people will probably be asking as they wake up this morning is what the road conditions are. Both the ND and MN Departments of Transportation have updated maps on their websites. The heaviest snow fell just west of the Red River Valley in east central North Dakota, and that is where the ND DOT site shows the worst road conditions. High pressure is expected to build in tonight, with better chances for clearing over eastern ND (where the heaviest snow fell). With the fresh snow cover, temperatures are expected to dip into the teens west of the Red River Valley. Fargo's record low tonight is 13 degrees, which should be safe. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Cool conditions will last through the first half of the upcoming week with rain and snow chances returning to the forecast for the upcoming weekend. Although confidence is low at this time, warmer and drier conditions may be coming by the middle part of next week. Friday... As surface high pressure builds over much of the northern Plains, dry but cool conditions are expected. Cold air funneling southward into the region will keep temperatures on the cool side with highs in the 30s and 40s. Saturday through Monday... A northwesterly flow regime is expected to establish itself over the coming days over the northern CONUS/Canada. This will allow a series of upper level shortwaves to propagate southeastward from Canada into the region. The first of these waves will bring rain and snow chances to northeast ND and northern MN beginning Saturday morning. Initially, strong warm air advection and isentropic ascent ahead of the main upper level and mid level low will allow for rain across the northern half of ND and much of northwest MN. Forecast soundings from Saturday afternoon show warm temperatures aloft that, along with strong ensemble agreement in surface temperatures a few degrees above freezing, suggest rain as the dominant precip type. But given recent snowfall cover over much of the area, attention will have to be given to future surface temp forecasts to watch for the potential for a narrow window for freezing rain/sleet. A change over to a rain/snow mix and eventually all snow is expected heading into Saturday evening through Sunday morning as colder air on the back side of the low pushes into the region. As this occurs, strong cold low level advection may allow for wind gusts up to 25-35 mph across much of North Dakota. Snow accumulation is most likely across northwest and north central Minnesota at this time, but may shift slightly depending on the exact track of the low. Snowfall accumulations on the order of one to two inches are anticipated. Snowfall will gradually be coming to an end Sunday night/Monday morning with clearing conditions expected through Monday night. Tuesday through Wednesday... Although a few deterministic and ensemble forecasts show another upper level wave pushing through the northern Plains during this period, overall confidence on any precipitation is low due to high spread in forecast solutions. However, many ensembles show a warm and dry signal from Tuesday into Wednesday. Exact high temperatures will be dependent on the evolution of the upper level pattern and any subsequent surface features that develop with the upper level wave. Confidence in this portion of the extended forecast will increase in the coming days as ensembles and deterministic models begin to agree on a forecast solution. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 IFR conditions will persist for the period with snow ending from west to east during the overnight. Expect moderate north- northwest winds at 15 to 25 kts through the late evening across eastern ND and the Red River corridor. Winds will decrease slowly during the overnight. Expect MVFR conditions in CIGS and VSBYS across most of the area early Thursday morning, with areas of IFR conditions in light snow... especially in northwest MN. MVFR CIGS should persist through the remainder of the day. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027-028. && $$ SHORT TERM...Godon LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...Gust