412 FXUS63 KFGF 110310 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1010 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 As snow and winds diminish over portions of eastern ND have trimmed back on the existing winter advisory area and downgraded the winter storm warning to an advisory. Have also extended the remaining advisory until 4am to account for the slow transition of the backwash snow band across the central Red River valley and northwest MN. UPDATE Issued at 715 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Winter Weather Advisory and Warning products continue in effect across eastern ND and northwest MN. Snowfall and winds will slowly diminish through the evening in eastern ND, as this storm system edges eastward. Some heavier snowfall still expected across far northwest Minnesota into the overnight hours. The southern RRV and westcentral MN will see lesser snowfall, an inch or less. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 System impacting the FA will gradually wind down with impacts and snow ending from southwest to northeast across the area this evening into the overnight. Highest amounts so far have occurred where strong transient bands of snow have repeatedly tracked across Barnes/Griggs and Steele Counties. Reports around Valley City have ranged from 9 to 13 inches this afternoon and its still snowing. Within the winter storm warning area there will be wide ranging amounts with generally 6 to 12 inches from around valley city into Griggs and Steele Counties up towards GF Air Force Base and west to near Petersburg with a band of higher amounts within that triangle. The eastern portions of the winter storm warning which include Fargo and Grand Forks will see less of an impact as banding set up west of the metro areas for most of the day. Across the rest of the area snowfall amounts in the advisory will range from 3 to 6 inches with impacts being reduced visibility with more intense snowfall and slippery travel conditions as snow accumulations add up. Snow will taper off this evening and into the overnight. Winds will also begin to come down and lose its gustiness this evening. Thursday will be cloudy and cold with highs in the low to mid 30s. These high temps for the 11th of Oct will be very close to the record low maximums for Grand Forks and Fargo which are 33F and 34F degrees. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The end of the work week will bring quiet conditions as surface high pressure builds across the central portion of the country. Temperatures will remain well below average, however, with highs only reaching into the upper 30s and low 40s. Active weather then looks to return as the upper flow turns more to the northwest and several waves pass through the region over the weekend and into next week. At this time, guidance is in fairly decent agreement keeping the best chances for the weekend along and north of Highway 2, especially focusing near the International border. Timing of the precipitation will be the main factor in how much snow/rain mix or all snow we see. Total QPF of a tenth or two appears probable which could translate to an inch or two of snow by the end of the weekend. Another similar clipper-like system is also progged for the beginning of the new work week but some variability in placement still exists. The below normal temperatures will persist (highs in the 30s and 40s with lows generally in the 20s) which will continue to allow mixed precipitation/snow to be possible with any precipitation chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 IFR conditions will persist for the period with snow ending from west to east during the overnight. Expect moderate north- northwest winds at 15 to 25 kts through the late evening across eastern ND and the Red River corridor. Winds will decrease slowly during the overnight. Expect MVFR conditions in CIGS and VSBYS across most of the area early Thursday morning, with areas of IFR conditions in light snow... especially in northwest MN. MVFR CIGS should persist through the remainder of the day. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for NDZ008-016- 027-029-030-039. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ001>009- 013>017-022>024-027-028. && $$ UPDATE...Gust SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Gust