754 FXUS63 KFGF 101757 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1257 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Have added Hubbard county with ice pellets/sleet and eventually 1 to 3 inches of snow this afternoon. Banding continue to be transient in nature with reports up to 9 inches at Valley City. Forecast changes are minimal for the rest of the afternoon and evening. Impacts of snowfall are confined to the areas which received the higher snowfall this morning where the strong banding set up for a few hours. UPDATE Issued at 1048 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Upgraded the winter weather advisory across Barnes and Cass northward to Grand Forks and Nelson to winter storm warning with widespread 4 to 7 inches reported this morning where a heavy band set up. An additional 3 to 5 inches expected across the warning area the exception is the immediate Red River Valley where less snow fall occurred this morning. Elsewhere still on track with 3 to 6 inches widespread and tapering south from south to northeast this afternoon and evening. A brief synopsis with deformation zone with transient bands of snowfall expected to persist across the area. As the upper wave lifts off intensity will diminish from southwest to northeast. Portions of NW MN will see snowfall through the overnight. UPDATE Issued at 659 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Getting reports of up to an inch or so of snow in spots. Looking at the ND/MN DOT road condition maps, the ND side is looking worse, but so far it is mainly wet, slushy roads. There has been a steadier snow band from Valley City to Larimore, where the ND DOT map shows the roads to be snow covered. Will still have to monitor for heavier snow bands today. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The forecast remains on track, with no changes in headlines or snowfall amounts seen at this point. The regional radars show the steadiest band of rain from Fargo over toward Bemidji and the Minnesota arrowhead. This band brought just under a half an inch of rain in the past 6-8 hours to the Park Rapids area. Otherwise, precipitation amounts so far have been lower than expected, and a little slower moving northward. There is somewhat of a break now over west central Minnesota, so not expecting too much more there through sunrise. Surface temperatures have been a little cooler from Jamestown down toward Aberdeen South Dakota. In this corridor, the precipitation has switched over to snow. Aberdeen mentioned that they have picked up about a half inch to an inch of snow. The switchover to snow should occur for most areas by sunrise. However, not expecting enough snowfall to overcome the warm ground temperatures this morning. So impacts this morning should be minimal. Steady snow should occur today into tonight, with 3 to 6 inches across most of the area. Exceptions will be portions of the Devils Lake region and west central Minnesota. A winter weather advisory was already issued and see no reasons to change it at this point. Will have to watch to see if any heavier bands of snow set up. If they do, those areas will have to be closely watched to see if more than 6 inches may occur. Lead time for something like that would not be that great, but that is the nature of banded snow events. Wind speeds may be a little higher than expected, with gusts to 40 mph likely today into portions of tonight. Outside of a heavier snow band, not expecting the snow to blow. Conditions should begin to improve first over eastern North Dakota this evening, but may not until very late tonight over northwest Minnesota. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 A better balance of wet/dry weather is expected over much of the extended forecast period, though below normal temperatures will likely continue. Thursday and Friday... Precipitation is expected to gradually come to an end across north central Minnesota early Thursday morning with slowly clearing skies from eastern ND to northwest MN during the late afternoon/evening hours. Drier weather will remain in place for Friday as surface high pressure builds over the northern Plains. However, temperatures during this period will remain on the cold side with afternoon highs in the upper 30s and low 40s for Thur and Fri respectively. Saturday and Sunday... Rain and snow chances return to the region over the weekend. In the wake of this mid week storm system a north/northwesterly flow regime is expected to establish itself over the northern CONUS/Canada by the weekend. An upper level shortwave embedded in this strong flow will propagate into the northeast ND/northwest MN region early Saturday, bringing rain north of the Highway 2 corridor. A transition to a rain/snow mix, and eventually to all snow, is expected overnight Saturday and into Sunday as a colder airmass on the back side of the low swings into the region. Currently, deterministic and ensemble guidance shows the best chance for accumulating snow along the international border and across north central Minnesota, however, overall snow accumulations are expected to be light (less than one inch). Precipitation will be diminishing during the day on Sunday with the last of the rain/snow moving out of north central MN by the evening hours. Temperatures during this period will continue to be on the cool side with afternoon highs only reaching the upper 30s and low 40s. Monday and Tuesday... Another weak shortwave is forecast to push through the region late in the day on Monday. This will bring additional light rain and snow chances across the area. However, overall confidence in these precip chances is low due to high model spread in the track of the upper level low. As with the weekend, afternoon highs will struggle to reach above the mid 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 IFR conditions will persist for the period with snow ending from SW to NE tonight. Will also continue to see strong north winds with gusts 30 to 35kts today. Some improvement in winds and visibility tomorrow morning though CIGs will still be 500 to 1500ft. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for NDZ008-016- 024-049-052>054. Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for NDZ026>030-038- 039. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ001>009- 013>017-022>024-027-028. && $$ UPDATE...JK SHORT TERM...Godon LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...JK