650 FXUS63 KFGF 091743 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1243 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Radar returns over the northwestern CWA continue to decrease, but there remains some reports of BR or light rain that indicates some patchy drizzle is continuing with our low level saturated layer. Will continue to keep a drizzle mention going for the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Still have some light rain falling across the FA, but mainly between the Interstate 94 and highway 2 corridors. Some stations have been reporting drizzle, as it has been fairly light. Like yesterday, surface temperatures are slightly cooler across the Devils Lake, New Rockford, Langdon, and Cando areas. So if any precipitation occurs in those areas, it could mix with some flakes of light snow. However, there is not much precipitation falling out there, so it would be minimal. Not currently seeing any pcpn falling across the southern Red River Valley into adjacent areas of west central Minnesota, but there is some 4-5 mile fog there. Unless visibilities get lower, will not worry about this fog. Models show most of the FA getting a break from the steady rain today, although it will stay cloudy and cool. Action starts to get more interesting by tonight, as the next round of rain/snow starts to move into the FA. Other than the Devils Lake region and portions of west central Minnesota, the rest of the area should see some snow by late tonight. With the warm ground temperatures, do not expect too much impact from this initial snow. North-northeast winds will be fairly gusty, so with the falling snow, there could be some areas with reduced visibility. The heavier snow will occur in the long term portion of the forecast. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 The major focus in the extended forecast will be the potential for winter weather impacts beginning Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. Confidence has increased in snowfall occurrence across the eastern ND/northwest MN area, but snowfall amounts and where it falls are still uncertain at this time. For that reason, will issue a Special Weather Statement for portions of the FA and highlight our current thoughts. Wednesday... As a strong upper level wave ejects out over the plains early Wednesday morning, a lee cyclone is expected to develop across the southern Plains and move northeastward into the western Great Lakes region. As this occurs, precipitation associated with both strong dynamic forcing and mid level frontogenetical forcing is expected to overspread the area. Precipitation will initially begin as rain but will change over to snow by late morning/mid day as surface level temperatures fall near/below freezing. Heavy precipitation banding is expected as the low tracks past the region, and may be augmented by low/mid level instability induced by strong cold air advection on the back side of the low. While guidance strongly supports this scenario, ensemble spread remains high as to the exact placement of the heavier precip bands. This high ensemble spread casts considerable uncertainty into the snowfall amount forecasts. While many areas will see at least some snowfall, likely one to four inches, a few locations may see higher snowfall amounts of 6+ inches. Additionally, strong northerly winds are expected to develop during the day on Wednesday with frequent wind gusts up to 25-35 mph. Reductions in visibility will be possible if these stronger winds coincide with areas of high snow rates. The combined effect of strong winds, wet snowfall accumulation, and the remaining fall foliage may cause a few downed tree branches/trees, and possibly a power outages, for areas with the heaviest snowfall. Snowfall is expected to gradually taper off from southwest to northeast, ending over north central MN, by late Wednesday night/very early Thursday morning. Thursday through Monday... Cool, but drier weather is expected for the area on Thursday as temperatures struggle to get out of the 30s. A gradual warm up is anticipated heading into the weekend with afternoon highs reaching the 40s. A clipper system moving out of Canada will bring rain and snow chances to northeast ND and northwest MN for the weekend and into Monday, though overall winter weather impacts are expected to be minimal at this time. However, this system will bring another round of cooler temperatures for Sunday and Monday as highs reach into the 30s and 40s respectively. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 MVFR conditions with some patches of BR and drizzle, although none impacting the TAF sites at this point. Will amend as needed through the afternoon hours. Mostly MVFR stratus will continue into this evening, with deteriorating visibilities and ceilings as a band of mixed rain and snow moves into the area. By tomorrow morning, ceilings will be down below 1000 ft in most areas and some vis will be down to 1-3SM with -SN. With heavier bands some vis below 1SM is not out of the question, but unknown if the heavier snow bands will impact a TAF site at this point. Winds will be breezy out of the northeast today, shifting to the northwest tonight and tomorrow and increasing. Speeds of 20 kts with gusts to 25 to 30 kts are possible late in the period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...Godon LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...JR