786 FXUS62 KFFC 110843 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 443 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .UPDATE... Have cancelled some of the Flood Watch on the SW side. No other changes at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 412 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018/ SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/... Michael is currently centered across east central Georgia this morning and will continue to rapidly push off to the northeast. Conditions have already begun to improve over the far western and southern portions of the CWFA...and will continue to improve for the remainder of the area through midday. There will be no changes to the tropical headlines for this forecast package. With Michael's exit, brings a cold front. A true cold front. This front is currently situated right along the Mississippi/Alabama border and is expected to move through the CWFA today. On the west side of Michael/the front, quick clearing is anticipated along with a rapidly drying airmass. Below normal temperatures are expected for overnight and Friday! NListemaa LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/... A generally quieter long term looks to continue. A short wave in the upper flow brings some limited moisture across the area Friday night with no instability. At this time, no precip is expected with the Saturday forecast dry as well. Starting Sunday and beyond, a WSW flow aloft will have surges of better moisture associated favoring n GA to start, with a weak cold front forecast to move across the area on Monday. Monday will be the only day were there could be a few thunderstorms associated. The GFS and European are not overly consistent with the forecast of the better moisture and precip, so chances are only running about 20-40 percent. Overall, cooler temperatures are expected with temperatures within 5-6 degrees of normal through Sunday, then varying more so with respect to normal the rest of the long term. BDL HYDROLOGY... The heaviest rainfall associated with Michael through 06z has been across the SW corner of the CWFA. Widespread totals of 3" to 5" were measured with some locally higher amounts approaching 5 1/2". Further north and east, rainfall totals through 06z averaged 1" to 3". For today, additional rainfall totals of 1" to 3" are possible across portions of east central Georgia as Michael exits the CWFA. The heavy rainfall from the training cells and banding along the northern deformation zone as the remnants of Michael exit eastward have allowed for some small creeks to respond with bankfull to minor flooding conditions mainly in the Atlanta Metro area this morning. Other heavy rain areas that occurred farther south in central Georgia due to the convective bands closer to the center of Michael may also allow some other larger basin creeks and rivers to have minor flooding. NListemaa/Baker AVIATION... 06Z Update... Michael has picked up speed and will continue to rapidly pull off to the east. The widespread precip will also begin to diminish rapidly towards 12z. The diminishing precip trend in the TAF may be on the slow side, but can be handled better in later AMDs if needed. Winds are very close to shifting to the west side, and think that should occur around 7Z. Frequent gusts to around 30kt will continue overnight, with frequent gusts to around 25 kt possible during the day on Thursday. VFR conditions expected after 18z. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Med confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 82 51 76 52 / 100 0 0 0 Atlanta 78 51 73 53 / 60 0 0 0 Blairsville 73 44 69 43 / 90 0 0 5 Cartersville 77 47 71 49 / 60 0 0 5 Columbus 82 53 77 55 / 20 0 0 0 Gainesville 79 50 74 52 / 100 0 0 0 Macon 84 52 78 53 / 40 0 0 0 Rome 77 48 72 50 / 50 0 0 5 Peachtree City 80 49 74 51 / 50 0 0 0 Vidalia 86 57 80 56 / 40 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Baldwin...Bibb... Bleckley...Chattahoochee...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly... Emanuel...Glascock...Greene...Hancock...Houston...Jasper... Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Marion... Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Oglethorpe...Peach... Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot... Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs... Upson...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox... Wilkes...Wilkinson. Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for the following zones: Baldwin...Clarke...Glascock...Greene... Hancock...Jasper...Jefferson...Jones...Madison...Morgan... Newton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Putnam...Taliaferro...Twiggs... Walton...Warren...Washington...Wilkes...Wilkinson. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....BDL AVIATION...NListemaa