860 FXUS62 KFFC 101932 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 332 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/... ...Remnants of Michael To Track Across East and Central Georgia... Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach Florida as a major hurricane at category 4 earlier this afternoon. It is now making a rapid acceleration to the NE with outer rain bands already affecting Central Georgia. The most immediate concern is the tornado threat as CAPE values have increased to 2000 J/KG and helicities will remain quite high through the entirety of this tropical event. Tornado watch has been issued for all of central Georgia and extending into the southern Atlanta metro. Winds will be an increasing concern from late evening into the overnight period as the initial tight wind circulation expands allowing for a larger envelope of damaging winds. With a stronger landfall, weakening will now only take this down to a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the forecast area. As it tracks across Central Georgia, hurricane force winds may transition to mainly gusts but effects will remain the same with hundreds if not thousands of trees and powerlines downed. Some could be without power for several days or up to a week depending on how much intensity is maintained with Michael. Have upgraded with the last package the tropical storm warning to a hurricane warning for Telfair and Wheeler counties. Remainder of warnings look on track. Did not want to confuse remainder of the area with Wind Advisory for now but did include in PNS that areas including the Atlanta metro would see some damaging winds to down trees and powerlines but no Tropical Storm force anticipated. QPF with latest run has increased slightly and will now carry 4 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts but current flood watch is uneffected. In other news, Fall makes an appearance Thursday night into Friday with lows for portions of the metro now expected in the upper 40s. Something to look forward to for those that enjoy such weather. Deese .LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/... Little changes were made to the long term with the focus obviously on Hurricane Michael. Did make minor tweaks to the extended temperatures and pops to account for the latest thinking, including a slight decrease in low temperatures next week. Otherwise, the previous forecast discussion remains applicable and follows below. 31 A much quieter long term is expected with most precip ended by Thursday night with just small chances for light showers briefly over the far e central cwa. Dry and much cooler weather is then expected for Friday and Saturday with temperatures within about 5 degrees of normal. Starting Sunday and beyond, a WSW flow aloft could have limited moisture and a short wave or two in conjunction with a weak cold front forecast to move across the area on Monday. This will amount to slight chance to chance pops for light showers through this timeframe. Instability will be very limited as well. Temperatures will mostly warm to above normal but not as much as previous. BDL .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... Forecast will be entirely dependent upon intensity forecast of Hurricane Michael and how much it weakens as it progresses inland. Right now, the strongest winds look to be along the right side of the storms track and would include MCN and AHN. MCN looks to have the strongest winds with gusts in excess of 40 kts after 06Z. for the ATL terminals, less in the way of winds expected but still possible to see gusts in the lower 30s. Stronger winds aloft and will need to monitor closely for enhanced SHRA development which could allow surface winds to increase ever so slightly. Feel at this time that surface winds cover this adequately for now and will maintain the 21G32kt for ATL. With winds remaining elevated, will keep cigs from going too low but still anticipate widespread IFR conditions for the overnight period. Rapid improvement anticipated for Thu afternoon with clouds scattering out and winds decreasing. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... Medium on wind gusts and cigs. High on remaining elements. Deese && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 81 70 80 51 / 80 100 100 5 Atlanta 81 71 78 51 / 90 100 60 0 Blairsville 76 66 72 44 / 60 100 80 0 Cartersville 82 69 77 48 / 80 100 60 0 Columbus 83 72 82 53 / 100 100 30 0 Gainesville 78 70 78 51 / 80 100 90 0 Macon 84 73 83 52 / 100 100 60 0 Rome 83 70 77 48 / 80 90 50 0 Peachtree City 82 71 79 49 / 90 100 50 0 Vidalia 85 75 85 57 / 90 100 80 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Tornado Watch until 2 AM EDT Thursday for the following zones: Baldwin...Barrow...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Chattahoochee... Clarke...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock... Greene...Hancock...Harris...Henry...Houston...Jasper... Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Marion... Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton... Oconee...Oglethorpe...Peach...Pike...Pulaski...Putnam... Rockdale...Schley...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot... Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs... Upson...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler... Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson. Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for the following zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Chattahoochee... Clarke...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock... Greene...Hancock...Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson... Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Madison...Marion...Monroe... Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...Oconee...Oglethorpe... Peach...Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot... Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs... Upson...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler... Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson. Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Baldwin...Bibb... Chattahoochee...Crawford...Emanuel...Glascock...Greene... Hancock...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar... Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Oglethorpe...Peach... Putnam...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Toombs...Treutlen... Twiggs...Upson...Warren...Washington...Wilkes...Wilkinson. Hurricane Warning for the following zones: Bleckley...Crisp... Dodge...Dooly...Houston...Laurens...Macon...Marion...Pulaski... Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Telfair...Webster...Wheeler... Wilcox. && $$ SHORT TERM...Deese LONG TERM....31 AVIATION...Deese