632 FXUS62 KFFC 101739 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 139 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1033 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ UPDATE... ..Hurricane Conditions Becoming More Likely For Portions of Central Georgia... All attention is on powerful Hurricane Michael as it churns rapidly toward the Florida coast as a Major Category 4 storm. Concern for the local area is that the storm will now be starting from a more intense initial condition at landfall and increasing forward speed will not allow as much weakening as previously thought. That is not to say we are anticipating Hurricane force sustained winds as this is still possible but perhaps not likely. But what we will see is widespread Hurricane force wind gusts within the Hurricane warned area. As we have seen from several storms the past two years, the impacts of these gusts to the local area are on par with sustained winds for other areas with less in the way of trees. Therefore, we are very much playing up the gust and Hurricane impact potential and will be upgrading a portion of the Tropical Storm warning to a Hurricane warning with this next issuance. Have also increased the tornado threat for SE portions of the forecast area beginning this afternoon and continuing through early Thu. Flood impacts still looks on track with some flash flooding possible with the anticipated 3 to 5 inches and locally higher amounts. Deese PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 721 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 351 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/... Hurricane Michael continues to churn out in the Gulf of Mexico early this morning. Michael is expected to continue northward this morning, making landfall across the panhandle of Florida this afternoon. After landfall, Michael will rapidly accelerate to the NE. Regional radar continues to depict light showers streaming in from the Atlantic. The activity remains light at this time. Initial rainbands associated with Michael have started to come onshore the Florida panhandle and will continue to creep closer to SW GA through the morning. The main impacts from Michael are still expected to affect the CWFA tonight and early Thursday. The main hazards to expect will be locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and the potential for tornadoes. No changes for the tropical headlines for this forecast period. However, changes may need to be made later this morning...all dependent upon the latest updates from TPC. Currently, the highest winds are anticipated along and south of a line from Chattahoochee to Glascock county. The greatest potential for tornadoes is roughly the same area. NListemaa LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/... A much quieter long term is expected with most precip ended by Thursday night with just small chances for light showers briefly over the far e central cwa. Dry and much cooler weather is then expected for Friday and Saturday with temperatures within about 5 degrees of normal. Starting Sunday and beyond, a WSW flow aloft could have limited moisture and a short wave or two in conjunction with a weak cold front forecast to move across the area on Monday. This will amount to slight chance to chance pops for light showers through this timeframe. Instability will be very limited as well. Temperatures will mostly warm to above normal but not as much as previous. BDL HYDROLOGY... The heaviest rainfall axis has shifted very slightly with this forecast period. In general, within the watch, widespread 3" to 5" are possible with locally higher amounts possible. The period for heaviest rains will start in the SW CWFA after 18Z today...and continue across to spread NE across the watch area overnight. The widespread rainfall is expected to begin shifting to the east after 12Z THU and begin tapering off by 18Z THU. Made some slight changes to the FFA this morning. Have added a tier of counties along a line from Muscogee to Walton County. && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... Forecast will be entirely dependent upon intensity forecast of Hurricane Michael and how much it weakens as it progresses inland. Right now, the strongest winds look to be along the right side of the storms track and would include MCN and AHN. MCN looks to have the strongest winds with gusts in excess of 40 kts after 06Z. for the ATL terminals, less in the way of winds expected but still possible to see gusts in the lower 30s. Stronger winds aloft and will need to monitor closely for enhanced SHRA development which could allow surface winds to increase ever so slightly. Feel at this time that surface winds cover this adequately for now and will maintain the 21G32kt for ATL. With winds remaining elevated, will keep cigs from going too low but still anticipate widespread IFR conditions for the overnight period. Rapid improvement anticipated for Thu afternoon with clouds scattering out and winds decreasing. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... Medium on wind gusts and cigs. High on remaining elements. Deese && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 81 70 80 52 / 60 100 90 10 Atlanta 81 71 79 51 / 80 100 60 5 Blairsville 76 66 73 44 / 60 100 90 5 Cartersville 82 70 77 47 / 60 90 60 5 Columbus 83 72 84 53 / 100 100 50 5 Gainesville 78 70 78 52 / 60 100 90 5 Macon 84 73 84 53 / 100 100 70 10 Rome 83 70 78 48 / 60 80 50 5 Peachtree City 82 71 81 50 / 100 100 60 5 Vidalia 85 75 86 60 / 90 100 80 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Baldwin...Bibb... Chattahoochee...Crawford...Emanuel...Glascock...Greene... Hancock...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar... Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Oglethorpe...Peach... Putnam...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs... Treutlen...Twiggs...Upson...Warren...Washington...Wheeler... Wilkes...Wilkinson. Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for the following zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Chattahoochee... Clarke...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock... Greene...Hancock...Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson... Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Madison...Marion...Monroe... Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...Oconee...Oglethorpe... Peach...Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot... Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs... Upson...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler... Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson. Hurricane Warning for the following zones: Bleckley...Crisp... Dodge...Dooly...Houston...Laurens...Macon...Marion...Pulaski... Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Webster...Wilcox. && $$ SHORT TERM...Deese LONG TERM....31 AVIATION...Deese