450 FXUS62 KFFC 101121 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 721 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 351 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/... Hurricane Michael continues to churn out in the Gulf of Mexico early this morning. Michael is expected to continue northward this morning, making landfall across the panhandle of Florida this afternoon. After landfall, Michael will rapidly accelerate to the NE. Regional radar continues to depict light showers streaming in from the Atlantic. The activity remains light at this time. Initial rainbands associated with Michael have started to come onshore the Florida panhandle and will continue to creep closer to SW GA through the morning. The main impacts from Michael are still expected to affect the CWFA tonight and early Thursday. The main hazards to expect will be locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and the potential for tornadoes. No changes for the tropical headlines for this forecast period. However, changes may need to be made later this morning...all dependent upon the latest updates from TPC. Currently, the highest winds are anticipated along and south of a line from Chattahoochee to Glascock county. The greatest potential for tornadoes is roughly the same area. NListemaa LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/... A much quieter long term is expected with most precip ended by Thursday night with just small chances for light showers briefly over the far e central cwa. Dry and much cooler weather is then expected for Friday and Saturday with temperatures within about 5 degrees of normal. Starting Sunday and beyond, a WSW flow aloft could have limited moisture and a short wave or two in conjunction with a weak cold front forecast to move across the area on Monday. This will amount to slight chance to chance pops for light showers through this timeframe. Instability will be very limited as well. Temperatures will mostly warm to above normal but not as much as previous. BDL HYDROLOGY... The heaviest rainfall axis has shifted very slightly with this forecast period. In general, within the watch, widespread 3" to 5" are possible with locally higher amounts possible. The period for heaviest rains will start in the SW CWFA after 18Z today...and continue across to spread NE across the watch area overnight. The widespread rainfall is expected to begin shifting to the east after 12Z THU and begin tapering off by 18Z THU. Made some slight changes to the FFA this morning. Have added a tier of counties along a line from Muscogee to Walton County. && .AVIATION... 12Z Update... IFR cigs should lift by mid/late morning. However, MVFR cigs expected for the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Not confident that IFR cigs will re-develop overnight. Winds will be the big story. Sustained speeds will increase through the late afternoon with peak speeds/gusts overnight. Any rainbands/tsra can be handled with tempo groups. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Med confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 81 70 80 52 / 60 100 90 10 Atlanta 81 71 79 51 / 80 100 60 5 Blairsville 76 66 73 44 / 60 100 90 5 Cartersville 82 70 77 47 / 60 90 60 5 Columbus 83 72 84 53 / 100 100 50 5 Gainesville 78 70 78 52 / 60 100 90 5 Macon 84 73 84 53 / 100 100 70 10 Rome 83 70 78 48 / 60 80 50 5 Peachtree City 82 71 81 50 / 100 100 60 5 Vidalia 85 75 86 60 / 90 100 80 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Baldwin...Bibb... Bleckley...Chattahoochee...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly... Emanuel...Glascock...Greene...Hancock...Houston...Jasper... Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Marion... Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Oglethorpe...Peach... Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot... Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs... Upson...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox... Wilkes...Wilkinson. Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Thursday afternoon for the following zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley... Butts...Chattahoochee...Clarke...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge... Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Greene...Hancock...Houston... Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon... Madison...Marion...Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee... Newton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Peach...Pulaski...Putnam... Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor... Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...Upson...Walton...Warren... Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....BDL AVIATION...NListemaa